Earnings Preview: Dollar Tree, Deere, and J. Crew

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Having already absorbed the earnings reports of scores of market-movers, this Thanksgiving-shortened week still provides some interesting releases to keep an eye on. With companies like Dollar Tree (DLTR), John Deere (DE), and J. Crew (JCG) reporting, we should be able to gain a bit more clarity into the state of our economy and perhaps into the direction of market movement for the rest of the week.

Dollar Tree (DLTR)

DLTR, which operates 3,591discount variety stores touching all 48 contiguous states, experienced a near 100% gain in 2008, a year in which most retail outlets were pounded. It’s up nearly another 20% in ’09 and will be reporting quarterly earnings Tuesday before the bell. DLTR has beaten estimates in several consecutive quarters, but investors should remain wary of the possibility for the company to trade down if economic indicators continue to remain positive, as the street will likely begin to believe the consumers trade down to DLTR’s locations may come to an end.

Analyst Estimates (High / Mean / Low): .69 / .661 / .64

DLTR

Deere & Co. (DE)

Deere & Co., producer of famed John Deere agricultural and farming equipment and recipient of an upgrade from Morgan Stanley Monday morning will also be reporting Tuesday before the bell.

DE has traded strongly lately, benefiting from what many on the street are calling a large-scale sector rotation favoring agricultural companies. Shares have traded up 30% since October 1 and 13% since November 1. Technical indicators are strong as well. DE finally broke through what had been resistance for about 6 months at the 48-range last week and saw its 20-day MA break sharply above its 50-day MA earlier in the month. However, the rather drastic range in analyst estimates demonstrates the volatility with which DE is likely to trade in response to its earnings announcement.

Analyst Estimates: .25 / .031 / -.12

DE

J. Crew Group Inc. (JCG)

With Black Friday right around the corner, traders will be sensitive to any news coming out of retailers for the foreseeable future. JCG should prove an interesting name to follow, as it should be a fair representative of mid-to-high end retailers, a segment for which many questions remain unanswered. Some companies, like Abercrombie & Fitch (Symbol: ANF) blew away analyst estimates, while others, like Nordstrom (Symbol: JWN) and The Gap (Symbol: GPS) found themselves on the defensive. The street is still looking for clarity into whether consumers will continue to trade down to lower-end retailers throughout the holiday season, and many hope that JCG will shed some light on the situation Tuesday after the bell.

Analyst Estimates: .60 / .584 / .54

JCG

Disclosures: No positions.

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