Chart Junkie: Gold, California Housing, and a Comparison to 1973-74 Market

By Damien Hoffman

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Chart Junkie

Our Chart Junkie series is quickly growing in popularity! We are humbled that some incredible minds on Wall Street have reached out to us to contribute to the series. We look forward to bringing you glimpses into those minds, via charts of course, as the weeks roll on …

GLD with Fibonacci Analysis

GLD with Fibonacci Analysis

Our affiliate partner Abdel at RatioTrading takes a look at Gold (GLD) this week:  Gold is producing a very similar pattern as it did last year.  That is, moving in a pennant formation before deciding which way to break out.  As you can see from the last setup, when we broke out it was to the downside.  Notice how we used the Fibonacci Extension tool to find a predictive area to where GLD was going.  We went right to the 1.272 and the 1.618 retracements.  As we bounce around in the current pennant we are looking for the same thing. If GLD breaks to the upside, we expect a move to the 1.272 extension around $100 at the minimum.  If it breaks through the pennant to the downside, we expect a move to the 1.272 extension around $81. Remember: nothing is 100%. This is purely looking at Gold from our Fibonacci Trading methodology and applying our analysis.  Always trade what you SEE, not what you THINK! (Click here to learn more about Fib Trading Products from RatioTrading)

CA Home Prices v. Ounce of Gold

CA Home Prices v. Ounce of Gold

RealPropertyAlpha worked up a very cool chart comparing California Home Prices to the price of an Ounce of Gold. John notes, “The interesting thing is that CA has erased 20 years of gains vs. gold.  The ratio is now at 1988 levels.” Always worth pondering relative real-asset valuations. (Source: RealPropertyAlpha)

Analysis of Fed Reserve Permanent Open Market Operations

Analysis of Fed Reserve Permanent Open Market Operations

Bob English at Precision Capital Management takes a very interesting look at Federal Reserve Permanent Open Market Operations versus S&P Futures activity: On March 25, 2009, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began regularly conducting permanent open market operations (POMO) for US Treasury securities, whereby it purchases them from large primary dealer financial institutions.  This capital can then be leveraged by 100 times or more for deployment in the equities markets.  We have separated the POMO days from the non-POMO days and presented the net S&P 500 futures point accumulation and other statistics for each hour of the trading day.  Manipulation?  You decide. (Source: Precision Capital Management)

Long Term VWAP on SPY

Long Term VWAP on SPY

Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge looks at one of my absolute favorite indicators, Volume Weighted Adjusted Price (VWAP), on the SPY. As we can see, we are playing a nasty game of mean reversion. (Source: Zero Hedge) Click here if you missed the first-ever interview with Tyler earlier this week.

S&P from 1973-74

S&P from 1973-74

S&P 2008-09

S&P 2008-09

Barry Ritholtz compares the MACD indicators from the bear market of 1973-74 with the same for the current bear market. If human behavior operates in patterns, then this is a compelling analysis to consider. (Source: The Big Picture via The Chart Store)

Do you have a dank chart worthy of a Chart Junkie? If so, click here to email us the link. (Note: DO NOT send us files. We will not open the email!)

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Jonesing for more charts? Try these posts:

Chart Junkie: 7.31.09

Chart Junkie 7.24.09

Chart Junkie 7.17.09

Chart Junkie 7.3.09

Chart Junkie 6.26.09

Chart Junkie 6.22.09

More on this topic (What's this?)
Why the Government Doesn’t Need Your Gold
Are We Being Conned About Gold Consfication?
Short Term Gold Market Outlook
Gold Myths
Read more on Gold, SPDR Gold Trust at Wikinvest


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  • I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

    Sara
  • Jenny L.
    levels are looking euphoric in these current markets
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Damien Hoffman - who has written 849 posts on Wall St. Cheat Sheet.


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