A lot of U.S. companies are planning to add staff in Q2 of this year according to Manpower’s latest U.S. Employment Outlook survey. In fact, 12 out of 13 industries surveyed have a positive outlook in the hiring front.
Think we now live in an age of Big Government job growth coupled with private sector shrinkage?
Wrong.
It’s actually the exact opposite now.
Manpower interview managers and various industries, and found that many of them are hiring. The following are the results of the survey
Government employers were the least ready to hire in Q2 with only 10% expecting to increase payrolls.
“Among U.S. employers surveyed, 16% expect to add to their workforces, and 8% expect a decline in their payrolls during Quarter 2 2010. Seventy-three percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels, and the remaining 3% of employers are undecided about their Quarter 2 2010 hiring plans.When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the results suggest that employers expect a relatively stable hiring rate compared to Quarter 1 2010. The second quarter Net Employment Outlook for the U.S. is favorable compared to one year ago at this time.
…Across all regions, employers anticipate a moderate increase in hiring activity compared to one year ago. Employers in the Northeast report the strongest Outlook for the quarter.” (Manpower Q2 2010)
In past posts I have gone through the mandated role of the Federal Reserve to show they clearly are not doing their jobs. Today, the Fed has amended the Truth in Lending regulation “to protect credit card users from unreasonable late payment and other penalty fees and to require credit card issuers to reconsider increases in interest rates.”
Is it me, or were these practices horrible for a long time before now? Apparently, the Fed is taking a little baby step to fulfill their duty to to protect the credit rights of consumers.
Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth A. Duke says, “The rule would prevent credit card issuers from charging large penalty fees for small missteps by consumers and would require issuers to reevaluate rate increases imposed since the beginning of last year.” Welcome to planet Earth, Elizabeth. Thanks for helping with the $39 penalties on a $20 statement.
Here are some of the Johnny-come-lately steps the Fed is taking long after the credit bubble:
Prohibit credit card issuers from charging penalty fees (including late payment fees and fees for exceeding the credit limit) that exceed the dollar amount associated with the consumer’s violation of the account terms. For example, card issuers would no longer be permitted to charge a $39 fee when a consumer is late making a $20 minimum payment. Instead, the fee could not exceed $20.
Ban inactivity fees, such as fees based on the consumer’s failure to use the account to make new purchases.
Prevent issuers from charging multiple penalty fees based on a single late payment or other violation of the account terms.
Require credit card issuers to inform consumers of the reasons for increases in rates.
Require issuers that have increased rates since January 1, 2009 to evaluate whether the reasons for the increase have changed and, if appropriate, to reduce the rate.
Once again, the Fed shows they are a step behind the curve. Here are some of my favorite hits by Bernanke:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that “The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000). Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs.”
Additionally, the under-employment rate dropped from 17.3% to 16.5%. Although these are encouraging signs, unemployment is a lumpy data set and one month never indicates a trend.
Tammy Erickson at Harvard Business Review is out with some thought provoking insights into emerging trends in the way we work:
Two-job norm — More people will maintain two sources of income than ever before. Instead of relying on the onetime holy grail of employment — a salaried job with full benefits — workers will create a series of backup options. For many, especially those in creative or knowledge-based work, this is likely to include becoming entrepreneurs. A second job or even a small entrepreneurial venture provides a safety net, giving workers a small measure of control over their fate in an increasingly unstable environment.
Less “off hours” work — Recession-management approaches that made full-time employees take a day a week “off” planted some new questions in the minds of employees who had been working virtually 24×7. What is a “day?” Eight hours? Twenty percent of the time I normally work each week? For many, these questions lead inevitably to: If they only want me to work four days a week, why am I working more than 32 hours? Many companies have come to rely on very long work weeks as staffing cuts lead to more work for the remaining individuals and technology facilitated round-the-clock work. I expect to see more push back this year — in part because many individuals will be spending time advancing their second work option.
Competition for discretionary energy — Engagement has been a hot topic in talent management circles for the past decade. But its benefits have focused primarily on attracting and retaining employees. Increasingly, managers’ focus will shift to competing for an employee’s discretionary energy — competing with other priorities in the employee’s life, including other options for work — but also competing against employees who are only “going through the motions.” More and more of the work in today’s economy cannot be done rotely — success requires a spark of extra effort, creativity, collaboration, and innovation.
More diverse arrangements — By now, most companies have put a variety of flex work options on the books. In 2010, I believe these arrangements will begin to take hold in significant ways, driven by employee preferences, facilitated by new technologies, supported by new managers who themselves are more comfortable with virtual work.
Transparent, “adult” arrangements — My favorite change is the growth in what I like to call “communities of adults” — a philosophy of recasting the employment relationship from one of paternalistic care to adult choice. A simple example is offering a menu of benefit options and letting employees choose those that work best. Further along the spectrum would include encouraging employees to “own” their own feedback process or even set their own compensation levels. These sorts of changes won’t settle in this year, but they’re coming. I expect we’ll see more examples as the year progresses.
Since graduating college, I have lived through two incredible bubbles and busts. Most of my peers do not believe in stability at work because they’ve never experienced such a fairy tale. Instead, our attitudes toward employment have slowly transformed into those of Wall Street’s attitude towards stocks: get what you can while you can, then move to the next hot thing.
For example, five years ago I had several friends working at Google. Some departed for sexier jobs at the new hot thing Facebook. Now I am watching others hook up with Twitter. If our parents married their employers, we’re definitely more interested in hooking up.
I also think most people in my generation have some side business either going on or “in the works.” It’s hard to ignore the unprecedented opportunities provided by the internet. It’s also hard to watch your office colleague quit and go on to build some social media app worth millions. In this regard, I think business plans will continue to become more like screenplays: soon everyone will have one.
The world of intellectual labor is changing as fast as the information age progresses. With new software which can translate any language in your word processor, it won’t be long before cheaper labor drags down the wages of professions once thought to be safe from globalization. I, for one, and excited to see what happens even if the transition to the New World is a bumpy and sometimes uncomfortable ride.
The U.S. Dept of Labor reported today that initial jobless claims for the week of Dec 26 fell slightly to 438,000 from the prior week’s revised figure of 454,000. Continuing claims (reported for the week of 12/19) remained essentially unchanged at 4.981 million from the revised figure of 5.038 million for the previous week.
Today’s report suggests the job market continues to stabilize. Claims for emergency unemployment compensation (for week of Dec 12), however, totaled 4,448,914, an increase of 191,669 from the prior week. There were 1,567,930 claimants in the comparable week in 2008.
States reporting the highest unemployment rates include: Alaska (7.4 percent unemployment), Oregon (6.1), Puerto Rico (5.8), Wisconsin (5.6), Michigan (5.5), Idaho (5.4), Montana (5.4), Nevada (5.4), Pennsylvania (5.4), and California (5.3).
The number you won’t hear mentioned anywhere in the Mainstream Media: 327,729. That is how many people shifted to Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs in the last week alone, hitting an all time record high of 4.2 million! So as everyone is focused on the benign picture of initial claims in the last week which was “only” 474,000, the number of people rolling off continuing benefits has exploded and is now a stunning 592,579 only in the last two week. Look for this number to keep going into the stratosphere as the 6 month continuing claims cliff keeps getting hit by more and more people who are unemployed and keep looking not only for believable change, but actual jobs to go with it.
And here is the chart that the administration would love to keep under lock and seal: the cumulative number of people on Emergency Insurance. At this rate those collecting EUC will surpass those on continuing claims (5.5 million) within a month.
Nonfarm payroll employment is holding steady in November after several months of declines, according to the latest batch of economic reports released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment remained essentially unchanged (-11,000) for the month of November after average declines of 135,000 for the previous three months.
The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 10.0 percent from last month’s 10.2 percent, showing 227,000 more employed persons but leaving 15.4 million people still unemployed. An additional 291,000 workers stopped looking for work in November, however, bringing the total of nonactive job seekers to 2.3 million.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 293,000, providing more evidence that jobs are leaving town for good. The long-term unemployed now stands at 5.9 million. The number of part-time workers remains unchanged for November.
The economy continues to pare manufacturing jobs at the highest rate with business service jobs showing the biggest increase.
Average workweek hours edged up 0.2 percent in November, slightly more than expected; hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent, slightly less than expected.
Nonfarm private employment decreased 169,000 from October to November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from September to October was revised by 8,000, from a decline of 203,000 to a decline of 195,000.
November was the eighth consecutive month during which the decline in employment was less than in the previous month. Although overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment usually trails economic activity, so it is likely to decline for at least a few more months.
Although the Emperor currently wears no clothes, his naked children are the ones who stand to suffer most. The New York Times reports:
With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.
In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
These interest payments directly substitute for money otherwise spent on real goods and services to benefit our society. Worse, they are future commitments that will harm young people and future generations. This is a complete betrayal of the American dream.
I am 32-years old. I have been told that if I work hard and follow the rules I should earn enough capital to pay for my current expenses (food, shelter, water, healthcare, transportation, etc.) and have enough money to fund my childrens’ college education as well as my retirement. Along the way I will pay taxes toward my social security benefits and other programs which should benefit me as my contributions vest.
This theory is a storyline for the real life version of Punk’d. With boomers about to overwhelm the system and the aforementioned debts requiring higher future taxes along with the skyrocketing cost of healthcare, energy, and college education, there is no rational way my generation can save enough to properly retire (assuming you are not in the top tier of wage earners).
Over the past few hundred years, many hard working people immigrated to the US so they could escape a socioeconomic trap. Today I am sad to say the same trap has now been set right here in the land of opportunity. And no matter how much BS politicians and think tanks spew, once young people see their shackles a certain group of smart ones will decide not to play the fool for past misdeeds and greed.
So, as I look in the mirror and see the Emperor’s children also have no clothes, I wonder how much time will pass before we witness a brain drain. I already hear low level murmurs from bright people who are exploring foreign jobs and living opportunities. Is this the first swell of a tsunami or simply vented anger?
The Prom Queen of economic reports is in:
Tammy Erickson at 
The U.S. Dept of Labor reported today that initial jobless claims for the week of Dec 26 fell slightly to 438,000 from the prior week’s revised figure of 454,000. Continuing claims (reported for the week of 12/19) remained essentially unchanged at 4.981 million from the revised figure of 5.038 million for the previous week.
Nonfarm payroll employment is holding steady in November after several months of declines, according to the latest 
According to ADP
Although the Emperor currently wears no clothes, his naked children are the ones who stand to suffer most. 
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