Posted on 23 February 2010. Tags: business conditions, Consumer Confidence, consumer spending, Dow, employment business, expectations index, income employment, jolts, Nasdaq, pissed off people, situation index, zeitgeist
The latest data from the Conference Board jolted markets today as the Nasdaq and Dow fell by about 1 percent after the news.
Consumer confidence fell by a significant 10 points in February to 46.0; January’s reading came in at a revised 56.5. The expectations index fell more than 13 points to 63.8 and the present situation index fell nearly 6 points to 19.4.
What’s to blame for the surprising numbers? Pick a card: income, employment, business conditions. Or maybe we should look at the Washington zeitgeist these days, which may trump all.
The one bright spot remaining is consumer spending, which indicates that no matter how pissed off people are, they still need stuff.
Posted in Economy, The Scoop
Posted on 12 February 2010. Tags: crash of 1929, Dow, investors, Rally, Technical Analysis, tipping point, video analysis
Today our partners at INO examine the crash of 1929 and the similarities to today’s Dow. This video is not meant to scare anyone, but to educate investors and traders of the possibilities that may exist in today’s market. As you know, Wall St. Cheat Sheet will tell you how it is — whether good or bad.
This video analysis shows we could be very close to a tipping point similar to that of 1930 when the Dow had ended a 50% correction rally to the upside. Let us know what you think.
As always, INOs videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
Click here to watch this historical chart analysis.
Posted in Featured, The Trade, Trading, Video
Posted on 08 December 2009. Tags: Auction, Dow, Market Profile, Markets, Nasdaq, Russell, S&P 500, Tom Alexander, Trading
Tom Alexander
From the perspective of Auction Market Analysis the US stock indices remain in a bullish position. The initial signal something could be awry regarding the immediate bullish case would be closes below the December lows to date that coincide with the High Volume Nodes (Value) from the November profile view.
Dec. Russell 2000
Dec. S&P mini
Dec. Nasdaq 100
Dec. Dow
Want more Market Profile with Tom? Try these posts:
Market Profile Helps Us Trade Around Massive Events Like Dubai Default
Market Profile Gives You the Message of the Market
SPYSPXDIAQQQQIWMStocksEconomic Policy
Posted in Featured, Market Profile, The Trade, Trading
Posted on 16 October 2009. Tags: CAAS, Chart Junkie, Charts, Corey Rosenbloom, David Singer, Dow, FusionIQ, Markets, Oil, Precision Capital Management, Stocks, Technical Analysis, USO, VWAP, Yen
CAAS
The Chart of the Week from our partners FusionIQ is China Automotive Systems (Nasdaq: CAAS): “China Automotive Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: CAAS) which manufactures power steering systems and other related products for different segments of the automobile industry in China broke above a downtrend line in tact since 2003 on very heavy volume on Friday. This breakout coupled with its FusionIQ technical score of 97 suggests shares can keep rising. Buying on a modest pullback makes sense with a tight stop. Our upside target is $ 14.50.” To learn how you can get an edge trading/investing with FusionIQ’s powerful platform, click here to watch my product review and take advantage of our special Wall St. Cheat Sheet 20% discount.
Precision Capital Management submits this super sweet chart: “Can an indicator launched in 1932 help predict the 2009 March low in the Dow (NYSE: DIA)? The anchored VWAP line in blue provided good support over the years, including the 2002 low after the tech bubble crash (8). However, price clearly broke through the line at times, most recently in March 2009 (9). The lower panel plots the percentage deviation of price from the VWAP line, beginning from the July 1932 low. Interestingly, the % deviation to the down side has never exceeded the -16% to -24% support area, the lower end of which was precisely hit this March. This support level also caught the major low in 1974 (5) as well as some early lows in the 1930’s (1, 2 & 3). Just as the yellow horizontal lines can act as support or resistance, so can the green trendlines. The 1966 top came after a break through major trendline support (4) and retest of the 110% level. On the 2000 top (7), there was no upward retest and this did mark the high. Eventually, the current rally will peter out a bit and, we would expect a long period of sideways action until the far right green downward trendline is finally broken. Unfortunately, this could take years (points 5 to 6 span eight years). What will be the high of this rally? We would expect it to come on a test of one of the two far right green trend lines. If price were to continue up at the same pace, this would be at Dow 10,700 or 12,500. However, if the trend slows or stops altogether, these figures will be less of course. We will definitely be keeping an eye on this indicator for some time. For background on the powerful support that anchored VWAP can provide (a component of the Paul Levine MIDAS method), please see our website (includes free TradeStation indicator).”
Click for Larger Image
David Singer has some nice Yen (XJY) charts this week: “The technical chart patterns on the long term charts posted above seem to give credence to [a bullish] theory. We had a massive up move in the Yen off of the Plaza Accord in 1985. That topped out in 1994, and we’ve been in a consolidation lasting 14 years since then. Recently, we have had another major round of Dollar weakness and Yen strength, pushing prices out of the consolidation to the upside on a breakout. Seemingly, very bullish long term…” (Source: Singer$Market)
Corey Rosenbloom, The Technical Analysis Professor, shows us how a Bear Trap worked in Oil (NYSE: USO): “The lesson I can give you about Bear Traps is that they are generally impossible to foresee ahead of time (that’s why they’re called traps!) but you CAN take advantage of them by recognizing when the trap is sprung and playing part of the rally that comes after bears/sellers are caught in the squeeze.” (Source: Afraid to Trade)
Want more Market Insights? Try these posts:
Is the Future Fertile for Agriculture Stocks?
Forget Earnings this Week and Read the Fine Print: The Proof of a Recovery Lies in the Revenues
Bright Signs of an Early Carnival for Traders Utilizing Brazilian ETFs
CAAS
FXY
JYF
USO
INDU
DIA
Currencies
Stocks
Commodities
Posted in Chart Junkie, The Trade
Posted on 18 September 2009. Tags: Chart Junkie, Charts, Corey Rosenbloom, Crash, David Singer, Dow, Good Magazine, housing, Investing, Precision Capital Management, Rally, S&P 500, Stocks, Technical Analysis, US Dollar, VWAP
Annotated US Dollar (Click for Readable Image)
My new friend David Singer has been doing some incredibly clever annotations to charts. This week he takes a look at the US Dollar and says:
1) Obviously its purchasing power has rapidly declined, hence why we have to work harder to get less, i.e. two income families etc.
2) Support is still at 70, which has yet to be broken…
3) the pattern taking shape now seems to be mirroring the pattern from 1987 to 1995…
4) If thats so we should continue to move in a range and them eventually higher…
5) after 1995, the equity markets took off, but, so did the USD … I think the reason is the fiscal situation. That why the USD and equities are moving in oppsite direction snow, whereas then the moved in tandem.
(Source: The Big Picture & Singer’s Market)
The Technical Analysis Professor Corey Rosenbloom has some great charts comparing historical crash recoveries. Above is our current experience as it has unfolded thus far. (Source: Afraid to Trade)
This week, Precision Capital Management says: “Above, we present Anchored VWAP (volume weighted average price) once again, but this time for SPY. The thick blue line represents the average price paid since the anchor date of October 11, 2007 (the all time high in SPY). Also plotted are Anchored VWAP from the March 6, 2009 low and July 8, 2009 interim low. The other colored lines represent standard deviations of the respective VWAP lines. Thursday’s knock-your-socks-off rally came just shy of the October 2009 VWAP line. This means SPY has reached an equilibrium point for the entire down leg, and we can expect some oscillation around this area before the markets decide what to do next (not unlike what we would see at a 200 day moving average). Also notable is the 2nd standard deviation lines (yellow) of the other VWAP lines, that have formed a confluence resistance area around current highs. Indeed, the 2nd standard deviation of VWAP from the March 6, 2009 low (hellow) has contained the entire rally, thus far. Should SPY trade above the October 2007 VWAP line, we could easily see a blow off top that trades up to the 3rd standard deviation of the March 2009 VWAP line (red), currently at 115.70. Otherwise, if the current area is rejected, we would expect SPY to trade down to at least the July 2009 VWAP line, currently at 99.82. Visit our website for more information about Anchored VWAP and for a free download of the TradeStation Anchored VWAP indicator we use.”
Frank DeRose asserts: As the number of foreclosures continue to mount, vast swaths of American cities are becoming deserted. In some places, more than a quarter of available rentals sit empty, while other systems have largely resisted the trend. Our latest Transparency is a look at the 10 most vacant and most occupied metropolitan areas for both houses and rental apartments.
(Source: Good Magazine)
Posted in Chart Junkie, The Knowledge
Posted on 22 June 2009. Tags: Bailout Nation, Barry Ritholtz, Chart Junkie, Charts, Crisis, Dollar, Dow, Immigration, VIX
Welcome to our first installment of Chart Junkie: A Picture’s Worth …
Chart Junkie will be a weekly series sharing some of the best charts and graphics we find on the web. However, this is also an interactive series because without your help we can’t possibly find all the vein-popping visuals. So, if you’d like to nominate a chart or graphic for our weekly post, please pass that dankness over here to charts@wallstcheatsheet.com
Now without further ado, let’s take a step back and admire the canvases of the week:
Seasonality is something all traders and investors must consider. Above are the seasons of change for fear/pessimism. (Source: Vix and More)
- 1 Year of Bailout Costs vs. 206 years of Historic Event Costs
This is the definition of “cost center.” Puts our costs perspective. (Source: The Big Picture)
- Correlation Between S&P 500 and US Dollar
The US Dollar has guided the S&P 500 (SPY). While betting, keep an eye on this tell. (Source: Quantifiable Edges)
- S&P 500 4/02/02 to 12/29/03
Where are we now? A nice look at bear market reaction to 200 Day Moving Average. (Source: Minyanville)
This “old” chart shows probablities for longer term returns if you got long at the extreme historical lows. (Source: Howard Lindzon)
- Who Is Coming to the US
Good investors stay atune to macro themes such as shifting demographics. (Source: GOOD)
Do you have a dank chart worthy of a Chart Junkie? If so, email the link to: charts@wallstcheatsheet.com
(Note: DO NOT send us files. We will not open the email!)
Posted in Chart Junkie
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