Will Apple Live to Regret the iPad Mini?

While Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues to contribute to the cannibalization of personal computers by tablets, the iPad mini may have killed off the company’s own higher-end tablet, Mizuho Securities’ Abhey Lamba has said in a research note. According to Lamba, there was a possibility of potential downside for iPad estimates this quarter because the smaller model was taking away most of the demand for the full-size model.

What Prompted Lamba Into His Assertion?

“Although iPad remains the market leader in the tablet space and it continues to solidify its number one position, the company’s higher-end tablet is being increasingly cannibalized by the lower-end iPad mini,” Lamba wrote, according to Barron’s.

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According to the analyst, while the iPad mini offers almost the same value as the larger iPad, it is available for a significantly lower price. That fact is a “big driver in the current macro environment and it also speaks to the price elasticity of the tablet market,” Lamba added. The analyst added that there was clear evidence of an increasing demand for sub-$200 tablets, with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android devices gaining share.

How Could This Affect Apple?

Lamba said 20 million units of the iPad was a better estimate for the current quarter than 25 million. In addition, iPad revenues would be slightly below $10 billion for the quarter. “Regarding iPad estimates, we believe current consensus of $11 billion for the December quarter (up 24 percent year-over-year) is too high,” he wrote. “Assuming an [average selling price] of about $450 (down 25 percent year-over-year), consensus iPad shipment forecast is around 25 million, which seems quite high given the lackluster demand being experienced by larger iPads.”

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