Whisper Number: What Will Micron’s Shares Do Post-Earnings?

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Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, January 7. The whisper number is $0.49, five cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. Whispers range from a low of $0.44 to a high of $0.57. Micron has a 52 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 13 of the 25 earnings reports for which we have data.

Earnings history:

- Beat whisper: 13 qtrs
- Met whisper: 1 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 11 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe.

MU114A

The strongest price movement of -7.5 percent comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +7.4 percent within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are ‘opposite’, the overall average price move is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

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