Whisper Number: What Will Ford’s Shares Do Post-Earnings?

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Ford (NYSE:F) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, January 28. The whisper number is $0.37, nine cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. Whispers range from a low of $0.35 to a high of $0.39. Ford has a 74 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 32 of the 43 earnings reports for which we have data.

Earnings history:

- Beat whisper: 32 qtrs
- Met whisper: 3 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 8 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe.

F114A

The strongest price movement of -1.2 percent comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +5.6 percent within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are ‘opposite’, the overall average price move is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

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