Whisper Number: How Will Nike Investors React to Earnings?

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Nike (NYSE:NKE) is expected to report earnings on Thursday. The whisper number is 60 cents, 2 cents ahead of analyst estimates. Whispers range from a low of 59 cents to a high of 62 cents. NKE has a 78 percent positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 36 of the 46 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

• Beat whisper: 36 qtrs
• Met whisper: 0 qtrs
• Missed whisper: 10 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post-earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post-earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day timeframe:

NKE1213A

The strongest price movement of -3.3 percent comes within 10 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number and +2.3 percent within five trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is “opposite” (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

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