Whisper Number: How Will American Express Investors React to Earnings?
American Express (NYSE:AXP) is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, October 16. The whisper number is $1.30, eight cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. Whispers range from a low of $1.25 to a high of $1.40. American Express has a 50 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 17 of the 34 earnings reports for which we have data.
- Beat whisper: 17 qtrs
- Met whisper: 1 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 16 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe.
The strongest price movement of -3.0 percent comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +2.1 percent within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Although the strongest price moves are ‘opposite’ what would be expected, the overall average price move is ‘positive’ (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see stength) when the company reports earnings.