Plum Creek Timber Earnings Call NUGGETS: Conservation Easement, Buyback Update

On Monday, Plum Creek Timber Co Inc (NYSE:PCL) reported its second quarter earnings and discussed the following topics in its earnings conference call. Take a look.

Institutional Activity

Mark Wilde – Deutsche Bank North America: The first question I had, just you mentioned this pickup in and institutional activity. It seems like in the second quarter here we’ve seen more TIMO activity than we’ve probably had in five or six years and I’m also getting some hints that discount rates are back near historic lows. I wondered if you could talk about the pickup, talk about what you think is out there in terms of sort of a capital backlog and any thoughts you might have on the discount rate?

A Closer Look: Plum Creek Earnings Cheat Sheet>>

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: Clearly, the large transactions last quarter trade between two TIMOs and so the activity is still there. We see this year about a couple of billion dollars still in the sidelines of at least demand for timberlands and clearly there’s not a lot of supplies, there’s not a lot of other lands in the markets that we’re aware of, and we’ve heard the same thing as you have about discount rates that some these transaction trading around a 5% discount rate. For some of these institutions being long-term holders looking at other alternative investments they might have assuming that that’s acceptable to them. So, clearly, that’s a kind of the trades that are being made today at a much lower rate and certainly we’re willing to invest that.

Mark Wilde – Deutsche Bank North America: Another question Rick, I was kind of curious on this conservation easement. You seem to have gotten somewhere between $25 and $30 an acre, which seem to me relatively low and I wondered whether there were some other potential benefits to the Plum Creek in agreeing to this easement?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: Well, this conservation easement really worked in concert with the large Concept Plan, the resource plan we did in Maine and so it’s part of that whole transaction we agreed due to the conservation easement and then that marketplace $30 per acre is not out of line, but we agreed to give up the development rights on those lands in the form of conservation easement to help get obviously the entitlements or the development opportunities up around Moosehead Lake. So it was really part of the larger transaction.

Mark Wilde – Deutsche Bank North America: That’s really what I was getting at. Then probably it seem like in some of these areas if I look year-over-year your volumes are up even more than the underlying markets and in the South even if I adjust for the timber need, can you give us a little color on what’s going on there?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: I think part of the reason that volume is, and David mentioned it, we’re doing a lot of first spins in many of these markets in the South due to a lot of the silviculture investments. For instance in Arkansas, we were expecting like 33 tons an acre on some first spins, and we’re getting 39 tons per acre. So what we’re finding is as we go into some of the stands are cutting out at a much higher bond than we anticipate, that’s part of the reason, and there is some other markets as you do – as we get into some (indiscernible), we’re getting more and more shipment sawlogs, so therefore the sawlog harvest is a bit higher than we anticipated. I think it’s just a nature of the investments we made over the last 10 years in silviculture which is roughly $500 million.

Mark Wilde – Deutsche Bank North America: Then finally, can you just give us an update on any changes or perspective changes in non-timber revenue streams?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: I don’t think we expect anything. On other non-timber, we gave guidance on the real estate markets which we still feel pretty good about and the non-timber resource business part of the energy and natural resources is still going to be kind of in that $20 million range for the year more or less. It’s been little higher in the past, but it’s all related to energy prices. Natural gas prices being down, this is largely a royalty business. Therefore, the royalties are down and therefore the income and cash flow.

Buyback Update

Chip Dillon – Vertical Research: If you could just remind us, I noticed you didn’t buy back stock in the quarter, where does that authorization stand at the current time?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: We had authority for $200 million and we bought back $25 million, so around $175 million is still available.

Chip Dillon – Vertical Research: The 25 was bought prior to the second quarter right?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: That’s correct.

Chip Dillon – Vertical Research: Could you just let us know – I know the timber deed you did I think in January or early last year, how much of the EBITDA and EBIT in the second quarter, if you could give us some – an idea of what’s from that timber deed?

David W. Lambert – SVP and CFO: In the second quarter we had EBITDA of about $3 million.

Chip Dillon – Vertical Research: I guess the last question is, when you look at – you mentioned that in the Northern segment you had strength in logs in April and then I guess the supply decks got built up, but we still see lumber hanging in there. In fact it was up last week, at least on a random links basis and do you sense that maybe that there could be actually a later in the year rally maybe and even in log prices because of the strength in lumber? And on that point, do you have a view as to why you think lumber prices are hanging in there so long this year when seasonally they normally rollover?

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: Clearly we’ve seen capacity utilization rates up, production volumes in both the South and the West are higher than they were a year ago, so I think we’re starting to see more and more demand for lumber and therefore better lumber prices. We haven’t seen it translate as directly into log prices because again I know you guys hate to hear or say this all the time but parts of U.S. south continue to be dry and therefore lots of logs are available and that’s 10% of the log pricing. And even in the West, in Oregon and some loans market, as that demand improved, we’ve seen a lot more logs in the market than we typically have. So I think that’s tampered a bit, some of the log pries that we would see otherwise. But clearly if lumber prices continue to stay to the rest of the year at the kind of levels we’ve seen now, we should see some more production increases and therefore higher log prices, clearly higher than we’re anticipating at the present time. So you’re right, there could be some upside.

Chip Dillon – Vertical Research: Then just last. As you look out in the Northwest, it seems like it’s been a good year, maybe a little more than a year since China really backed off from the market and is there any sort of intelligence you have in terms of maybe where they logged (dexar) over there and when you think we could see enough of an improvement to get prices moving the other way at least right along the coast.

Rick R. Holley – President and CEO: In the first quarter, (log decks), as you’ve heard were very high. The ports were all full. A lot of that has come down; they are probably running at about 50% of that inventory level today. That’s why I think we see all the inquiries built up, but as many of you know, there is a change in the Chinese government which will happen in August. So, there is not a lot of policy decisions being made now and a lot of those new policies won’t be in place for a few months. So, I think the economic climate in China is going to be a little flat and I think what’s why we haven’t seen a little more activity than we would expect with inventories coming down a bit. But clearly, as we get towards the end of the year, we should see activity pick up again.