OECD Predicts Mixed Growth for Major Economies
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development released its December Composite Leading Indicators report, and it’s a whole bag of mixed news. Most of the euro area, Japan, and Russia face weak growth, while the United States and the United Kingdom seem to be on track for stable recovery.
The CLI system was developed by the OECD to try to predict changes in economic growth and contraction. The system uses a composite of indicators such as orders and inventory changes, financial market indicators such as share prices, and business confidence surveys to anticipate economic turning points six- to nine-months before they happen.
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The CLI is compared against a long-term average of 100. Using this as a reference, the OECD calculated the CLI for its member states to be 100.2, a 0.02 percent change from September and a 0.14 percent change year over year, representing an outlook they label as “stabilizing growth.”
The October CLI for the euro area clocked in at 99.3, a 0.05 percent decline from September and a 0.88 percent decline year over year, representing “weak growth.” Taken individually, both Germany and France, two keystone economies in Europe, are expected to post “weak growth” for the coming six- to nine-month period.
Taken together, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea also had a CLI of 99.3, but this was a 0.03 percent growth from September and only a 0.73 percent decline year over year. The OECD predicts “stabilizing growth” for the five major Asian economies, spearheaded by India and China. Japan in particular is facing weak growth.
The U.S. had the highest October CLI at 100.9, a 0.09 percent increase from October and a 0.96 percent increase year over year. The OECD gave the U.S. economy the label of “growth firming,” along with the U.K., which had a CLI of 100.5, the second highest CLI.