OECD Economic Outlook: Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development released an economic outlook report on November 27 that predicts a “hesitant and uneven recovery over the coming two years.”

The mood of the report is reserved and packed with cautious optimism that major economies will be on a clear road to recovery by the end of 2014. In the meantime, the pace of GDP growth, the broadest measure of economic performance, will remain low in many countries and contract in others.

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Among the 34 member nations of the OECD, real GDP growth for 2013 is expected to remain flat in 2012 at just 1.4 percent, edging up to 2.3 percent in 2014. Global GDP growth for 2012 is expected at 2.9 percent, moving up to 3.4 percent in 2013 led by emerging economies.

“The world economy is far from being out of the woods,” said OECD secretary-general Angel Gurría at the Economic Outlook launch event in Paris. “The U.S. ‘fiscal cliff’, if it materialises, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn. Governments must act decisively, using all the tools at their disposal to turn confidence around and boost growth and jobs, in the United States, in Europe, and elsewhere.”