Obamacare Medicaid Rollout: Does Cooperation Matter?

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Scholars Strategy Network Director Theda Skocpol has a new analysis out about Medicaid enrollment under Obamacare. Skocpol crunched the data, and says that the states that expanded Medicaid are close to reaching enrollment targets set by the Congressional Budget Office. Skocpol uses data compiled by Charles Gaba to determine how many people have signed up for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (or, CHIP). Gaba is collecting data from outlets to create his tables. Skocpol measured Gaba’s data against targets and estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, and the Kaiser Medicaid Commission.

She then divided her categories into full supporters — states implementing their own exchanges, and expanding Medicaid–varying levels of support — expanding Medicaid only, for example — and states that have not expanded Medicaid, and did not implement state-based marketplaces. ”The best way to track reform is by comparing states acting in good faith to those engaged in delay or obstruction,” Skocpol said in the brief.

According to her results, the “Full-Go” states — i.e. those with state-based marketplaces and Medicaid expansion — have hit 42 percent of enrollment projections done by Kaiser, and 37.2 percent of the CBO’s projections. The states that did neither, and are what Skocpol calls “Just Say No” states, are at 1.5 percent of their Kaiser projections and 5.6 percent of what the CBO predicted.

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