Manufacturing Outlook Worsens Despite June Recovery

NYFed General Business Conditions

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Conditions for New York manufacturers improved modestly in June, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. General business conditions — the survey’s most comprehensive measure of economic sentiment and business outlook — climbed 9 points to 7.8, indicating growth after falling into negative territory in May. The jump is a surprise beat against expectations for an increase to just 0.50.

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However, it’s important to point out that the strong increase in the general business conditions index masks weakness in other key components. The indexes for new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all declined, either falling deeper into or entering negative territory. Labor market conditions, measured by the index for number of employees and the index for the average workweek, continued to worsen as well.