Is Groupon Keeping Enough Money to Stay in Business?

Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) opened Thursday’s regular trading session with nearly a quarter of its market cap missing. The beleaguered daily-deals operator posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results after the closing bell on Wednesday that had longs running for the hills and shorts — about 14.4 percent of the float as of February 15 — seeing green.

Here’s a quick breakdown of Groupon’s recent performance:

*Groupon forecast.

At a glance it’s easy to see that revenues increased respectably — 29.7 percent year over year — but earnings fell back into negative territory. For the year, revenue grew 45 percent to $2.33 billion, while the company’s earnings loss narrowed from -$1.03 to -$0.10 per share.

The two really disappointing parts of the report are a weak first-quarter forecast, and news that the company has cut its take rate, the amount of money generated by daily deals that Groupon keeps. Groupon’s first-quarter forecast suggests top-line growth between zero and 9 percent. Operating income for the quarter is expected in a range between positive and negative $10 million…