Is Exxon Mobil’s Stock Still One Of The Safest Bets?

then you would feel a lot more at ease owning Exxon Mobil or Chevron opposed to BP.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Subpar

Exxon Mobil has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past few months and years. However, this is one of those rare situations where this fact should be negated from your decision-making process when contemplating the purchase of Exxon Mobil shares.

Over the past month, Exxon Mobil is down 3.07% while the S&P 500 is down .66%. Year-to-date, Exxon Mobil is up 5.60% while the S&P 500 is up 13.50%. Over the past calendar year, Exxon Mobil is up 18.02% while the S&P 500 is up 23.48%. When you look at three-year returns, Exxon Mobil is up 25.69% while the S&P 500 is up 36.46%.

At around $87.20, Exxon Mobil is currently trading a few dollar lower than its 50-day SMA of $90.41. It’s trading slightly lower than its 100-day SMA of $88.76. It’s trading slightly higher than its 200-day moving average of $86.37.

While the overall market has experienced incredible gains over the past few years, keep in mind that the majority of those gains have been artificial. Exxon Mobil, on the other hand, will steadily grind upward in poor markets, decent markets, and strong markets.

E = Earnings and Growth Are Steady

Earnings and growth have been steady over the past five years. This trend should continue.

      2007       2008       2009       2010       2011
Revenue ($)in billions 404.55 477.36 310.59 383.22 486.43
Diluted EPS ($) 7.26 8.66 3.98 6.22 8.42

 

The quarterly numbers are also steady:

     9/2011      12/2011      3/2012      6/2012      9/2012
Revenue ($)in billions 125.33 121.61 124.05 127.36 115.71
Diluted EPS ($) 2.13 1.97 2.00 3.41 2.09

 

T = Trends Support the Industry in which Exxon Operates

There are always talks about alternative energy become the world’s primary source of energy, but this never comes to fruition. Even it does, it’s decades away and you will have plenty of time to see it coming if you need to prepare from an investing standpoint. That said, Exxon Mobil would likely end up being one of the leaders in that area as well. Therefore, you have nothing to worry about in this area.

Conclusion

Many investors are choosing Chevron over Exxon Mobil lately. This is primarily because Chevron runs a more efficient business in regards to profit. Chevron focuses more on the production of oil than oil refining. Exxon Mobil focuses more on oil refining. This leads to Chevron being more efficient on a net-profit-per-dollar basis. However, Exxon Mobil has outperformed Chevron for decades. Exxon Mobil is a company that can make fast and well-calculated adjustments at any time.

Exxon Mobil won’t make you a millionaire overnight, but it’s that type of dream which leads many investors to big losses. If you want a safe and steady return over the long haul, then it doesn’t get much better than Exxon Mobil. Therefore, Exxon Mobil a long-term OUTPERFORM based on the analysis above.

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