How Long Until We Reach 6.5% Unemployment?

At the current pace of about 150,000 jobs created per month, David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff & Associates, thinks that the economy could see 6.5 percent unemployment by 2018.

An awkward Hail Mary for the unemployment rate could be a substantial change in labor force participation. Economists estimate that about 63.6 percent of the adult population in the U.S. is either employed or looking for work, and it is from this share of the population that unemployment is calculated.

This number could drop if the number of people retiring increases (score one for the baby boomers?) or if more people go back to school, which would also have a positive impact on the country’s pool of available skill sets.

Barring a surge in college applications (the higher education system is already at capacity in many places), The Hamilton Project also predicts that at 150,000 jobs created per month, we will see 6.5 percent unemployment in 2018. At 220,000 jobs created per month, which they argue is a more accurate estimate of the current rate of growth, we will see 6.5 percent mid-way through 2015.

So, those are some ball-park estimates for the duration of QE-infinity.

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