Gold: Is The Bull Market Really Over?

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The recent price movement of gold has been frustrating for some people. The yellow precious metal logged its twelfth consecutive annual gain in dollar terms and climbed higher against every major fiat currency in 2012. However, gold has been stuck in consolidation mode and finished the year with its worst quarter in four years. Furthermore, some market participants are claiming the bull market is over.

Gold finished last year about 7.0 percent higher at $1,675 an ounce. It capped the longest streak of annual gains since at least 1920, but gold entered the new year with a less impressive record. Bullion prices declined for six consecutive weeks, representing its longest losing streak since 2004. This pullback comes along side of a wave of negative sentiment.

In November, Citigroup’s Edward L. Morse wrote that “the commodity super cycle is over.” He contributes a large part of the call to slowing growth in China and less demand from the nation. While he predicts gold to average $1,749 an ounce this year, he expects it to only average $1,655 an ounce in 2014. His forecast on silver is $26.50 an ounce in 2014. Citigroup’s call was followed by Goldman Sachs telling clients to sell gold, citing improving U.S. growth. Deutsche Bank, the German bank recently found to be profiting from manipulated LIBOR rates, also downgraded its outlook for gold and silver.

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More recently, the London Bullion Market Association’s top forecaster, Rene Hochreiter, told Bloomberg that the 12-year old bull market is over and gold would only reach a high of $1,700 an ounce this year. Although, he is more bullish on other precious metals. Hochreiter explains, “I think America will sort itself out and the economy will start moving again, positively. As gold declines, as the world economy improves, so will the industrial side, and platinum, palladium and silver will start to pick up.”

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