Does Exxon Mobil Support A Move To All-Time Highs?

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With shares of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) trading around $93, is XOM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Exxon Mobil is a manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and a range of specialty products. The company has a number of divisions and affiliates with names that include ExxonMobil, Exxon, Esso or Mobil that operate or market products in the United States and other countries of the world. Exxon Mobil’s principal business is energy, involving exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; manufacture of petroleum products; and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Energy is essential to global growth and day-to-day operations of companies and consumers worldwide. So long as crude oil is a main source of energy, a bellwether like Exxon Mobil will continue to see rising profits well into the future.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Exxon Mobil stock has seen a consistent uptrend extending back to the Financial Crisis. The stock is now bumping up against long-term resistance where it may pause for a breather. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Exxon Mobil is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

XOM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Exxon Mobil options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Exxon Mobil Options

16.20%

3%

1%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

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