Cinemark Earnings Analysis: Here’s How Key Drivers Settled Out

The following is an excerpt from a report compiled by Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities.

Despite Cinemark’s (NYSE:CNK) slight revenue miss, adjusted EBITDA and a normalized EPS beat our estimate. Total revenue was $612 million, vs. our $622 million estimate and consensus of $617 million. U.S. revenue was $433 million, vs. our $430 million estimate. International revenue was $179 million, vs. our $192 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $144 million, vs. our $136 million estimate.  Although GAAP EPS was $0.24 vs. our estimate and consensus of $0.38, the shortfall was primarily due to a higher tax rate which accounted for $0.11, and an additional $0.05 attributable to loss on early retirement of debt during the quarter. Backing out these items, EPS would have been $0.40, driven primarily by lower film rental cost.

The domestic segment performed slightly better than our expectations, while international was strong, but below our high estimates. Admissions revenue per average screen in the domestic segment increased 14.8% year-over-year compared to our estimate of 15.0% and the industry of 16.0% during the quarter. International revenue grew 11% during the quarter, but below our expectations.

Q1 is tracking down 9% domestically. Q1:13 is up against a strong +22% comp that remains difficult throughout the quarter. We assume Q1 box office  will track negative high-single-digits, and Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) will have contribution from…