Can Sears Stock See a Turnaround?

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With shares of Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) trading around $50, is SHLD an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Sears operates as a specialty retailer in the United States and Canada. The companys Kmart segment operates stores that sell merchandise under Jaclyn Smith and Joe Boxer labels; and Sears brand products, such as Kenmore, Craftsman, and DieHard. This segment’s stores provide consumer electronics, seasonal merchandise, outdoor living, toys, lawn and garden equipment, food and consumables, and apparel; and operate in-store pharmacies. The company’s Sears Domestic segment operates stores that sell merchandise under the Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard, Lands End, Covington, Apostrophe, and Canyon River Blues brand names. Its stores provide appliances, consumer electronics, tools, sporting goods, outdoor living, lawn and garden equipment, home fashion products, apparel, footwear, jewelry, accessories, health and beauty products, pantry goods, household products, and toys, as well as automotive services and products.

Sears plans to spin off its Lands’ End Inc. unit, giving investors a piece of a profitable clothing brand amid almost nine years of market-lagging returns for the department-store chain’s shares. The distribution is subject to the approval of the board and other conditions, Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based Sears said in a statement. The unit’s registration filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission didn’t say how many Lands’ End shares Sears investors would receive.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Sears stock has not made significant progress. The stock has been pulling back recently and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Sears is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

SHLD

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Sears options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Sears options

67.50%

63%

61%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Average

Average

January Options

Average

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

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