Can FedEx Stock Deliver Rising Prices?

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With shares of FedEx (NYSE:FDX) trading around $96, is FDX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. Transportation is improving so businesses and consumers are increasing their interest in transacting worldwide. Gasoline prices and vehicle efficiency tend to have a significant impact on the company so watch for improvements in these areas. As boundaries on international commerce blur, look for companies like FedEx to be able to provide the shipping services required across the globe.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

At the beginning of the year, FedEx stock broke-out of a value range that began in late 2009. The stock shot higher but is now trading near break-out levels. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, FedEx is trading between its key averages which signal neutral action in the near-term.

FDX

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of FedEx options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

FedEx Options

26.57%

26%

22%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Steep

Average

August Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

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