Analyst: Apple’s iPhone Will Dominate U.S. Market by 2017
A renowned mobile industry analyst has predicted that Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone will account for over two-thirds of the entire U.S. smartphone market by 2017. Asymco analyst Horace Dediu based his conclusion on a predictive growth model that compared the pattern of growth for Apple’s iPhone to the growth of the overall U.S. smartphone market. Dediu previously worked as an industry analyst and business development manager at Finnish smartphone maker Nokia (NYSE:NOK) before founding Asymco, and he is often consulted by various news media as an expert on Apple.
As noted by Dediu, the iPhone’s pattern of growth is remarkably similar to the pattern of growth for the overall U.S. smartphone market. The analyst believes this is because, “consumers are absorbing the product in similar way to how they are absorbing the technology.” Other smartphone vendors tend to demonstrate faster or slower rates of growth because, “they are not communicating value with the consumer but with manufacturers or distributors of the product.”
According to Dediu’s growth model, the U.S. smartphone market will reach saturation, or 90 percent penetration, by 2017. If Apple’s iPhone market share continues to grow at a similar rate to what has been seen so far, 68 percent of U.S. smartphone users will own an iPhone by February 2017. As noted by Dediu, this would be equivalent to approximately 180 million iPhone owners out of a smartphone market population of around 226 million.