All Clear For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters?

With shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) trading around $73, is GMCR an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses. The company roasts Arabica bean coffees, including single-origin, Fair Trade Certified, certified organic, flavored, limited edition and blends offered in K-Cup portion packs, whole bean and ground coffee selections. It also offers other specialty beverages, including tea, hot apple cider and hot cocoa also offered in K-Cup portion packs. The coffee and relative drink trend has been exploding over recent years. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters makes this trend as personal as possible by bringing favorite beverages to the comfort of homes and businesses. As the specialty and related beverage trend operates in full force, look for companies like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to see rising profits.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters stock has seen an explosive move higher over the last several years. Just recently however, the stock suffered from negative press that scared a few investors. Today, the stock has recovered and is on path to take out previous all-time highs. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

GMCR

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Options

46.74%

26%

25%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.