Whisper Number: How Will JPMorgan’s Stock Move After Earnings?

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, July 15. The whisper number is $1.28, one cent behind the analysts’ estimate and showing no confidence from investors. JPMorgan has a 73 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 36 of the 49 earnings reports for which we have data.

Earnings history:

- Beat whisper: 36 qtrs
– Met whisper: 1 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 12 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

JPM714A

The strongest price movement of -2.5 percent comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +5 percent within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is ‘opposite’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.