Is Applied Materials Poised to Beat the Whisper Number?
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, May 15. The whisper number is $0.30, two cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate and showing some confidence from investors. Whispers range from a low of $0.29 to a high of $0.32. Applied Materials has a 65 percent positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 36 of the 55 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 36 qtrs
- Met whisper: 2 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 17 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -2.3 percent comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +2.8 percent within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is ‘opposite’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.