Gold: Here’s What 2014 Will Bring

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Source: Thinkstock

Source: Thinkstock

So far in 2014, the price of gold is up over 11 percent and trades at about $1,330 per ounce. It closed out 2013 at $1,200 per ounce, which was more or less the low of the year (the price did hit an intraday low of $1,180 per ounce in June, but it quickly rebounded). Investors have expressed a lot of negativity by selling off the shares of gold miners and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD). Furthermore, several institutions have come out with negative calls on the gold price — from Credit Suisse to Goldman Sachs – despite the fact that they had been bullish on the gold price when it was trading higher.

Investors seem more comfortable with the idea of holding gold in this market. 2014 has been a stellar year so far for gold mining shares, with the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF up 24 percent versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is essentially flat. Furthermore we recently saw data that the SPDR Gold Trust is beginning to see inflows again.

This renewed confidence in gold is due to a couple of factors. First, gold hit what was essentially a double bottom in December, as the price reached the $1,200-per-ounce low that it hit in June and then began to move higher. A double bottom is typically a relatively strong technical signal that there are value buyers who are interested in owning an asset at that level.

Second, while stocks aren’t down for the year, we have seen some negativity begin to enter the equity markets. Stocks essentially went straight up last year, and now we have begun to see some volatility enter the market. With stocks showing volatility and trading near all-time highs, equity investors are rightly cautious, and some of the money that would have otherwise gone into equities is finding its way into gold.

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