Does the LinkedIn Whisper Number Show Investor Confidence?
LinkedIn (NASDAQ:LNKD) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, May 1. The whisper number is 32 cents, 2 cents behind the analysts’ estimate and showing little confidence. LinkedIn has a 75 percent positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in six of the eight earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 6 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 2 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post-earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post-earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of +3.3 percent comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +7.8 percent within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are positive, the overall average price move is “opposite” (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.