Can Dunkin’ Brands Recover?

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With shares of Dunkin’ Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) trading around $47, is DNKN an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Dunkin’ Brands owns, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants under the Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins brands worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Dunkin’ Donuts U.S., Dunkin’ Donuts International, Baskin-Robbins International, and Baskin-Robbins U.S. Its restaurants offer coffee, donuts, bagels, ice cream, frozen beverages, baked goods, and related products. The increasing popularity of the product offerings by Dunkin’ Brands is fueling excellent growth for the company.

Dunkin’ Brands today reported results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2014. “We had a difficult first-quarter with our comparable store sales growth in the U.S. significantly impacted by severe weather in the regions of the country where most of our Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants are located. However, we remain confident that we will hit our targets for the full year,” said Nigel Travis, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. “Our franchisees achieved strong restaurant growth in the quarter adding 69 net new Dunkin’ Donuts locations in the U.S. We’re also excited to announce that we expect the first traditional Dunkin’ Donuts restaurant to open in California by the end of 2014, ahead of our original expectations. Additionally, we launched the DD Perks Rewards Program nationally at the end of January, and, more recently, online cake ordering for Baskin-Robbins, both major milestones in using technology to drive sales in our restaurants in the U.S. and eventually globally.”

“Our steadfast focus on franchisee profitability is the backbone of our long-term plan to have more than 15,000 Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants in the U.S.,” said Paul Carbone, Chief Financial Officer, Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. “We’re proud to report that the 2013 cohort of new restaurant openings delivered 25 percent cash-on-cash returns to franchisees, the fourth year in a row that new restaurants achieved this target. The compelling restaurant returns are driven by strong topline results, increased sales of high-margin beverages and breakfast sandwiches, the move to flat-pricing by our franchisee-owned purchasing and distribution cooperative, highly-effective real-estate selection, and an operations-focused culture and we continue to attract highly-qualified new and existing franchise operators to grow with the Dunkin’ Donuts brand in the U.S.”

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