Can Citigroup Recover?

With shares of Citigroup (NYSE:C) trading around $47, is C an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Citigroup is a global diversified financial services holding company providing consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services. It operates in two segments: Citicorp and Citi Holdings. The company’s products and services are consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, wealth management, and transaction services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions worldwide.

Citigroup is expected to pay a $7 billion penalty for packaging bad mortgages in the run-up to the financial crisis, according to people close to the matter. The Justice Department and Citigroup are expected to announce the deal sometime this week. Negotiations reached a dead end a few weeks ago when the Justice Department threatened to sue the bank if it did not agree with the government’s proposal. At one point in the talks the government was asking Citigroup to pay $10 billion, much more than what Wall Street analysts had estimated. Citigroup will pay $4 billion in cash and the rest of the penalty will involve soft dollar penalties like mortgage modifications and other forms of relief to homeowners. The bank will also have to pay certain state attorneys general involved in the case. The deal will come as a relief to Citigroup, which at one point was facing legal action from the Justice Department, removing a potential legal obstacle that would have had an impact on its share price. The bank argued that its pre-crisis mortgage activity should not be equated to J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), which sold far more bad mortgages before the crisis. J.P. Morgan Chase reached a landmark $13 billion settlement with the Justice Department last November.