Retail Sales: “Nothing Like Last Year”

By Damien Hoffman

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Dead Santa FeatureThis weekend I pumped myself up in the bathroom mirror and headed to the Best Buy (BBY) and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) for some anecdotal analysis. The unanimous consensus: “This year is nothing like last year.”

Managers and store staff explained that midweek traffic and overall spending is lower than last year. In other words, people are concentrating their shopping to the weekends and purchasing less during those trips.

Further, Best Buy indicated that consumers are buying fewer items so they can get that one big ticket item (e.g., TV, computer, video game console, etc.). This statement was evidenced by the shoppers clustered around computers and televisions, while the CD, DVD, and accessory isles were less trafficked.

Obviously, my analysis was not scientific. One city does not reflect a national trend. However, the National Retail Federation reported that 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over the Black Friday weekend, up from 172 million last year, spending $343.71 per person, down from $372.57 in 2008.

Let’s see if Santa makes it out this year …

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  • LR
    Was recently at the mall in Boca Raton. The consensus from store clerks that we spoke to was dismal and said this shopping season's sales will be much lower than last year.
  • I've been out shopping and it seems to me that the stores are more busy and have more people making purchases than in 2008. I've been shopping in Sonoma County, CA.

    Love the picture!
  • Thanks, DE! Must be a mixed bag. Palm Beach is dead.
  • Consumers may be putting off some purchases, possibly leading to a last-minute surge in holiday-gift searching in the final days ahead of Christmas.
    An improved labor market may spur greater consumer spending in the last month of the holiday shopping season, which accounts for a third or more of U.S. retailers’ annual profit. The jobless rate fell to 10 percent in November, after reaching a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October.
  • Weekly chain store sales dropped 1.3% last week! This came after weak Thanksgiving sales, continuing the downtrend since the recent peak last summer. The seasonally-adjusted weekly sales dropped to their lowest level since February.
    See my chart on my web site.
    My own anecdotal evidence in Florida is that malls are empty since Black Friday. Even golf courses are deserted.
  • Thanks for the info, Denis. Feel free to send me some charts.
  • Andre J.
    It's good to read a dose of retail realism.
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Damien Hoffman - who has written 849 posts on Wall St. Cheat Sheet.


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