Author Archives | Derek Hoffman

Tuesday, August 31st: Live Money Hour Webinar w/ The Hoffman Brothers!

Tuesday, August 31st: Live Money Hour Webinar w/ The Hoffman Brothers!

Join us Tuesday, August 31st at noon EST for a FREE 1-hour webinar special Money Hour!

Space is limited, so reserve your webinar seat now:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/648440584

Here’s what we will be discussing:

- Current Financial Market Conditions (Dow & S&P).

- September catalysts for the overall markets and individual stock plays.

- Technicals and Fundamentals of select stocks utilizing the CHEAT SHEET framework for investing and trading.

Interactive Q&A with Damien & Derek at the end of Money Hour!

See you there!

Damien & Derek Hoffman
Co-Founders, WallStCheatSheet.com

**After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.

Posted in Interviews, The Knowledge0 Comments

Earnings Cheat Sheet: TiVo Beats Estimates

Earnings Cheat Sheet: TiVo Beats Estimates

Earnings: Q2 loss of ($.13) vs. ($.15) consensus and a loss of ($.03 ) in Q2 last year.

Revenue: Decreased 15.9% Year-over-Year from $48.8 Million last year t0 $42.1 Million this year in the same period, versus $41.87 Million consensus, passing expectations.

Tom Rogers, President and CEO of TiVo, stated “TiVo remains on solid financial footing, exceeding our revenue and earnings guidance and with a strong balance sheet of over $240 million in cash and short-term investments, and no debt.”

Comment: Shares of TIVO are trading down 1.71% following the company’s earnings release after-the-bell, trading at $8.32 per share, compared to the closing price of $8.47.

In the chart above, TIVO shares are trading above the 50-day moving average, yet below the 200-day moving average. The company has been plagued by a lawsuit with EchoStar (SATS), but exudes confidence in their ability to win the litigation suit. The proof will reside in the ultimate court decision. Meanwhile, in the 2nd quarter, TIVO inked deals with Suddenlink Communications, the seventh largest U.S. cable operator currently with 1.3 million subscribers, and Cox Communications, the third largest U.S. cable television operator. A key attraction to the stock right now is TIVO’s cash position of over $2 per share and zero debt on their balance sheet. TIVO stock hit a 52-week low in July of this year. Since then, TIVO shares have rebounded and consolidated recently. If TIVO can continue to grow sales while reducing costs, then TIVO shares could become even more compelling than they are today.

Posted in Earnings, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Retail Earnings Cheat Sheet: Are Ross Stores (ROST) Shares Attractive?

Retail Earnings Cheat Sheet: Are Ross Stores (ROST) Shares Attractive?

Pleasanton, Calif-based Ross Stores Inc (ROST) announced earnings on August 19th with a dose of cautious sentiment in a very shaky market. Considering the retailer is known for discounted accessories, apparel and home-related merchandise, you would assume business is plush for Ross Stores. The stock is up over 16% since the start of the year, so the discount retailing trend has been the ROST friend. But, will the trend continue? Here is the latest earnings breakdown:

Earnings: Q2 profits of $1.07 vs. $1.07 consensus and a gain of $.82 in Q2 last year, an 23.4% rise in profits Year-over Year.

Revenue: Increased 8% Year-over-Year from $1.77 Billion last year t0 $1.91 Billion this year, versus $1.92 Billion consensus, barely missing expectations.

Michael Balmuth, ROST CEO and Vice Chairman stated, “We faced extremely tough comparisons in the second half of the year as same store sales grew 9% and earnings per share rose 67% in the back half of 2009. As a result while we hope to do better, we believe it is prudent to maintain a somewhat cautious outlook concerning our sales and earnings targets for the second half of 2010.” He also said, “We remain on track to complete during 2010 approximately $375 million of our current two year $750 million stock repurchase program.”

Comment: Shares of ROST are trading down 2.7% following the company’s earnings release August 19th before-the-bell, trading at $49.58 share, mainly due in part to the overall market sell-off though.

In the chart above, ROST shares are trading slightly below the 200-day and well below the 50-day moving averages. On a technical basis, it is evident the current support level around $49 per share is a potential area of consolidation relative to last year’s peak prices in September and October. ROST shares experienced a strong run in the first quarter of 2010 and have pulled back since late April, not fully finding support quite yet. ROST pays a 1.3% annual dividend and has plenty of cash in the coffers, $775 million in cash versus $150 million in debt. With $62+ revenue per share, cost-cutting measure in place and a stock buyback program that is meeting its intended goals, Ross Stores Inc (ROST) may very well be building a base of support in the current price range as consumer still seek out discounts now more than ever.

Posted in Earnings, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Retail Earnings Cheat Sheet: Gap (GPS) Takes Fashion Abroad

Retail Earnings Cheat Sheet: Gap (GPS) Takes Fashion Abroad

Lately, everyone is questioning the consumer and the consumer’s ability to spend at retail. Yet, this earnings season has proved even the smallest uptick in top-line growth is serving better results than consumer confidence. The reality of the numbers has one step up on recent turbulent sentiment surveys. Here’s a look at Gap Inc. latest earnings breakdown (GPS):

Earnings: Q2 profits of $.36 vs. $.35 consensus and a gain of $.33 in Q2 last year, an 9% rise in profits Year-over Year.

Revenue: Increased 2% Year-over-Year from $3.24 Billion last year t0 $3.32 Billion this year, versus $3.31 Billion consensus, slightly passing expectations.

Gap Inc. CEO Glenn Murphy sees potential international growth, “By the end of the month, we’re going to open up our first store in Australia…Everything is on target for China. We’re going to open up at the end of October in Shanghai and we’re going to have four stores by the end of the year in Shanghai and Beijing…And Italy, which was the other big country we announced a few months ago, we’re going to be opening up in late November in Milan with both Banana Republic and Gap stores.”

Comment: Shares of Gap Inc (GPS) are trading down 2.3% following the company’s earnings release on Thursday, August 18th, after-the-bell, trading at $17.30 per share.

In the chart above, Gap Inc. (GPS) shares are trading at 52-week lows well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. An upside announcement for shares came from Gap’s board authorizing a new $750 million share repurchase program, on top of the $1 billion already authorized for 2010, bringing the total to $1.75 billion. In general, share buybacks reduce the supply of shares to the public in an effort to preserve share price and potentially increase it down the road if positive earnings can be delivered consistently in the future. Meanwhile, the Old Navy brand accounted for 37% of Gap Inc. revenues in the 2nd quarter. I increasingly hear that Banana Republic has been fashionably out-of-favor and in dire need of a turnaround to kickstart better sales again. As Gap Inc. (GPS) grows its presence abroad, the question remains whether their retail brand will be embraced and accepted. We’ll be waiting to see whether Gap Inc (GPS) performs in new emerging markets, first, before thinking twice about investing in their shares with confidence.

Posted in Earnings, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

FDIC Bank Failures Reach 118: The Weak Shakeout Continues

FDIC Bank Failures Reach 118: The Weak Shakeout Continues

Earlier this year, on February 22nd, I wrote about the first 20 failed banks of 2010. Fast forward 6 months later, and there are now 118 bank failures in 2010. To put this year’s bank failures in perspective, there was a total of 140 bank failures in 2009. At the current annual pace, the FDIC total bank failures could reach 180 by year end, or an increase of 28.5% year-over-year.

The most fascinating and unexpected point to highlight from the chart and data below is that each of the highest bank failure months (March, April and July) correlate with rare up-trending monthly market returns for the S&P (see March, April and July below). Do bank failures actually bode well for the financial markets?

Here’s the breakdown of the number of bank failures per month in 2010:

January: 15

February: 7

March: 19

April: 23

May: 14

June: 8

July: 22

August: 10

As the strong continue to survive, here’s a snapshot of failed weak banks in August 2010, according to the FDIC:

If you want to steer clear of failure, then consider joining our Wall St. Cheat Sheet Premium monthly newsletter where we hand pick winning investments for you.

Posted in The Edge, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Earnings Cheat Sheet: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

Earnings Cheat Sheet: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

Among the Hurd drama, the uncertainty for H-P’s leadership and a recent 15% decline for HP’s stock price, the real numbers proved two things, higher expenses hurt H-P’s bottom line, but top-line growth is still in tact for the 300,000 plus employee Palo Alto, CA-based computer company. Here’s the breakdown on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ):

Earnings: Q3 profits of $.75 vs. $1.08 consensus and a gain of $.69 in Q2 last year, an 8.6% rise in profits Year-over Year. Excluding items, H-P would have earned $1.08 per share, which was in-line with analyst expectations.

Revenue: Increased 11% Year-over-Year from 27.6 Billion last year t0 $30.7 Billion this year, versus $30.43 Billion consensus, passing expectations.

Cathie Lesjak, H-P CFO and interim CEO stated, “We raised our full-year outlook and are continuing to build momentum in driving out costs, investing for profitable growth and capitalizing on HP’s competitive advantages in the marketplace.”

Comment: Shares of HPQ are trading down slightly .64% following the company’s earnings release after-the-bell, trading at $40.50 per share, compared to the closing price of $40.76.

In the chart above, HPQ shares are trading at 52-week lows well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Following the Hurd debacle, the stock has dropped 15+%. Most analysts have been pegging HPQ shares in the $45-48 range, above the current share price. A bright note in today’s solid HPQ earnings report was the evident growth in emerging markets. According to the company’s earnings report, “revenue from outside of the United States in the third quarter accounted for 63% of total HP revenue, with revenue in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) increasing 21% while accounting for 11% of total HP revenue.” With a double-digit top-line growth number issued today amidst the negative press beating down Mark Hurd for his actions, buying opportunities are coming into play for investors who see the strength beyond the shadow in HPQ shares. The company is still rock solid. The only question remaining is who will be the next captain of the HPQ ship?

Disclosure: No positions held in the companies mentioned.

Posted in Earnings, The Edge, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Mobile Minute: Financial Social Media and Jobs – with Allan Schoenberg, CME Group

Mobile Minute: Financial Social Media and Jobs – with Allan Schoenberg, CME Group

Our partners at the CME Group (CME) gave us an insider’s look at their new modern day global command center at the CME headquarters in Chicago. In contrast to the former CME trading pits of shouting traders filling orders by fist pumping emotionally charged adrenaline, today’s technologically-driven trading floor brings peace among button clickers.

In this Wall St. Cheat Sheet Mobile Minute I interview Allan Schoenberg, Director of Corporate Communications, who discusses our partnership and the importance of financial social media. In the face of today’s horrid jobless claims number, he offers a glimmer of hope for hiring in the 2nd half of 2010 (at the CME) and advice for job seekers on the hunt:

Posted in Brightest Minds, The Knowledge, Video0 Comments

Monster Media Stocks Growing Again: CBS vs. News Corp. (NWSA)

Monster Media Stocks Growing Again: CBS vs. News Corp. (NWSA)

Today, I want to provide a breakdown of two media companies showing Wall Street and the world that an ad recovery is evident in two blue chip earnings reports, CBS and News Corp (NWSA). Here’s your Cheat Sheet to CBS and NWSA’s latest numbers:

CBS: Double Digit Top-Line Growth Ain’t So Bad

Earnings: Q2 profits of $.22 vs. $.21 consensus and a gain of $.02 in Q2 last year, a big rise in profits Year-over Year.

Revenue: Increased 11% Year-over-Year at $3.3 Billion.

When looking out to the second half of 2010, CBS CEO Les Moonves said, “all signs point to ongoing growth and profitability.” He expects political advertising to continue to pick up and give a boost to the recovery ad sales segment for CBS. Moonves also added, “With top-line gains in all of our businesses, and a continued vigilance on cost containment, revenues are translating more efficiently into profits.  Meanwhile, our content is thriving:  The network finished another television season in first place, which helped us sell next year’s schedule in a very strong Upfront marketplace at attractive rates.”

Comment: Shares of CBS are trading down following the company’s earnings release on Tuesday, August 3rd, trading at $14.47 per share. The overall market selloff today is weighing on the shares, as fear is back on the trading radar for equities once again.

In the chart above, CBS shares have pulled back to the 50 day moving average and still remain above the 200 day moving average. Based on today’s weakness in the overall financial markets, CBS is share may become more attractive to the average investor, taking into account a strong 2nd quarter report and very positive guidance for a recovery. Since May, CBS share have been in a tight ‘chop zone’ price range of $12.50 – $15.50. Look at the major moving averages as benchmarks for future investment in CBS stock. The company earns over $19 per share in revenue and sports a book value above $13, although a heavily debt structured balance sheet. CBS also pays a 1.3% dividend to loyal shareholders. ‘Survivor’ and ’60 Minutes’ are still favorites among viewers, but what does CBS have in-store next for establishing the next big show on their network?

News Corp. (NWSA): Murdoch is Hopeful About the Future

Earnings: Fiscal Q4 profits of $.33 vs. $.20 consensus and a loss of $.08 in Q4 last year. As a result, profits were way higher Year-over-Year.

Revenue: Increased 6% Year-over-Year at $8.11 Billion vs. a consensus of $7.87 Billion, easily surpassing the Street’s expectations.

Chairman Rupert Murdoch agrees with us at Wall St. Cheat Sheet and reiterated that the iPad is “a game changer” on his latest conference call. He expects to see major NWSA mobile monetization in the future from the brand new device. Murdoch as said he more “confident” about the 2nd half of the year for News Corp and the media industry as a whole.

Comment: Shares of News Corp (NWSA) are trading down following the company’s earnings release last week, closing the trading day $13.38.

Based on News Corp.’s technical chart, the NWSA share price action has been choppy throughout 2010. The share price barely trades above the 50 day moving average and 200 day moving averages. Whether you think there is false hope or real conviction in Rupert Murdoch’s latest words about News Corps next 6 months, the stock is performed to the upside following the strong report and is not ‘cooling’ back to a level support. The initial move of positive upward inertia was pulled back by today’s ‘worrisome’ economy. However, if you stick to the conviction behind Murdoch’s guidance, you may digest the fact that the executives at the top are gesturing a more optimistic tone that eventually trickles down to the bottom-line as advertising revenue continues to be book and the possibility of hiring and expansion becomes likelier. News Corp’s famed property, FOX, continues to be a top bread winner for the company.

We’ll let you decide which company, CBS or News Corp, you want to own for your portfolio. As drawn out above, both companies’ 2nd quarter blueprints lend an upward hand to a better and brighter future ahead for both companies. Which company do you like better? CBS or News Corp?

Posted in Earnings, The Edge, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Product Review: Your Cheat Sheet to the Apple (AAPL) iPad

Product Review: Your Cheat Sheet to the Apple (AAPL) iPad

On April 3rd, 2010, the publishing industry as we’ve known it changed forever. The iPad, an evolutionary game-changer, hit the hands of the consumer for the very first time.

Since launching one of the coolest, groundbreaking technological devices in history, Apple (AAPL) is selling over 1 million iPads a month. We were able to get our hands on an iPad just a few weeks after Steve Jobs gave his presentation and Apple began selling it to the public.

First-Mover Advantage Wins Again

From the iPod to the iPad, Apple (AAPL) understands the most vital ingredients necessary to deliver new product innovation to consumers. That is why to date Apple still cannot satisfy demand for the iPad.

The iPad was the must-have device once it was released because there was nothing else like it in existence. Now, it’s back-to-school Summer shopping season, and all I see everywhere is free marketing for the iPad (e.g., sign up for [enter the service here] and enter your chance to win a free iPad). Simply put, the word-of-mouth marketing for the iPad is reminiscent of the iPod days. The iPad is the new hot tech gadget on the block that is cool for just about any co-promotion out there.

Here is your Cheat Sheet Review of the iPad:

The Screen is Superior

The iPad possesses the sleekest 9.7 inch touch screen on the e-reader/tablet market, easily surpassing the Nook (BKS) and Kindle (AMZN). The screen is color, visually displays a crisp picture, and allows for very easy navigation.

When surfing the web or reading a book from the Apple store, the text is super easy to read. You can manually enlarge or minimize the screen with your finger on the touch screen based on your visual preferences. Additionally, the iPad acts as a mobile photo album with a digital picture frame. Standing on its own, the iPad is a half-inch thin and only 1.5 lbs.

The iPad is Also a Bigger iPod

Whether you are sitting pool side this Summer and need some tunes or you’re inside and want to hook your iTunes playlist into your speakers, the iPad serves as a mobile modern day boom box — only smaller, lighter and thinner. The audio quality and sound output on the iPad is as clear as a sunny day at the beach.

The Durability of the iPad Case is a Must

One of my major concerns with the device was the fragility of it while being mobile. I always felt I had to be extra cautious with it so I did not scratch the screen or get any dirt particles on it. All worries of device protection were alleviated with the iPad case. The flap covers the screen so the case opens like a book. If you are going to own an iPad, I highly recommend this case:

Other Key Positive Attributes:

- The App store is incredibly large and diverse in its offering.

- With the use of Dictation, I could speak to the iPad and it would convert my voice to text. Then, I could email myself notes I recorded, never having to type one button on a keyboard.

- Browsing the web was just as a easy as being on a laptop. Personally, I think the iPad gives laptops/netbooks a run for their money sooner than later. The mobility of the iPad is one of its greatest features. With a laptop, you need to pick it up and carry it around and set it down to begin typing. I could be standing up and easily type or surf on the iPad.

- The battery life was better than the Energizer bunny. I could spend all day, at least 10 hours, using the iPad and it still had remaining life. Whereas, with my MacBook, after just 3 hours of use my battery is signaling shutdown.

A Few Missing Links We May See in the Future

- Unfortunately, I could not multi-task on the iPad. But then again, it’s probably a good thing to stay focused on the task at hand. It would be beneficial down the road to be able to have a document open and also browse the web simultaneously.

- There is no video camera for web video conferencing. With such an incredible screen, it seems a future development could come in the form of more “Facetime” similar to the new iPhone 4.

- Eventually, I would also like to see Flash support. There’s nothing more frustrating than visiting a site on the web and not being able to load the video when you want it.

For additional suggestions for the future iPad, check out Tech Cheat Sheet Editor Elliot Turner’s latest list.

The Real Result: Apple Sold 3.27 Million iPads in 3rd Quarter

According to Apple’s 2nd quarter earnings report, Steve Jobs is saving technology with a major catalyst during a “steep uphill climb” in this economic environment. The truth is always in the numbers and the consumer is always right. In Apple’s case, the iPad is officially a hit and exceeded everyone’s expectations on innovation and first generation capabilities.

Recently, I spoke with an anonymous Apple retail distributor and they said, “Apple is rationing iPads to retail locations. We have a laundry list of interested iPad buyers who put their name down at our store. We anxiously await iPads from Apple and customers anxiously await iPads from us.”

Pricing:

Do not underestimate the powerful capability of Apple’s efficient and methodical planning to yield successful sales. Apple continues to prove to all the sideline observers, fans, skeptics, and analysts alike, there is no ‘economic slowdown’ or ‘jobless recovery’ or even ‘Great Consumer Recession’ at Apple … just a brewing American capitalist economy success story in its prime.

How many iPads did Apple sell in 110+ days? We’ll have to anxiously await the next update … stay tuned! Let us know if you are going to be one of those new iPad owners. Or, if you have an iPad, share your review in the comments below.

Posted in Buzz, Reviews, The Knowledge0 Comments

Earnings Cheat Sheet: Is Systemax the New Best Buy?

Earnings Cheat Sheet: Is Systemax the New Best Buy?

Once again, Systemax (SYX) proved to be Best Buy’s (BBY) dark horse competitor with a smash hit earnings report. During the Great Recession, Systemax (SYX) purchased Circuit City’s customers for $1 each, or 14 million customers for $14 million, during bankruptcy proceedings. It does not take a rocket scientist to determine Systemax can eventually yield a high ROI per customer acquired. The story in today’s report is the massive pick-up in business-to-business sales, a sign that companies are increasing their capital expenditures on consumer electronic technology upgrades. Business-to-business channel sales grew 35% to $417.4 million in the 2nd quarter.

Earnings: Q2 diluted profits of $.25 vs. $.17 in Q2 last year, huge rise of 47% in profits Year-over Year.

Revenue: Increased 12% Year-over-Year at $805.9 Million vs. $721.6 Million in the same quarter a year ago, a strong display of double-digit sales growth Year-over-Year.

Richard Leeds, Chairman & CEO of Systemax (SYX) stated, “Systemax’s solid second quarter performance, with consolidated sales growth of 12% and all-time record revenues, was once again led by our business to business channels, which produced strong results as small- and mid-sized businesses have started to return to more normalized spending. Our consolidated results demonstrate the benefits of our business diversification, one of the leading components of our long-term growth strategy, and continue to buffer the challenging consumer spending environment. Looking ahead, we remain focused on prudently building our businesses and leveraging our robust brand portfolio.”

Comment: Shares of Systemax (SYX) are flat following the company’s earnings release after-the-bell, trading at $16.30 per share:

In the chart above, Systemax (SYX) shares are trading right below the 50-day moving average and further away from the 200-day moving average. Lately, Systemax’s share price has build a base of support above $15 per share. After today’s solid earnings report in a continued challenging economic climate, shares should continue to hold firm in the current price zone. At first glance of the earnings report, it appears SYX has paid down a portion of the very small debt on their balance sheet. With a strong management team in the Leeds Brothers, SYX continues to meet our Cheat Sheet framework for investing. Continue to stay tuned to the SYX growth story.

Disclosure: Systemax (SYX) was a past Wall St. Cheat Sheet Premium Feature Trade. Author is Long SYX

Posted in Buzz, Earnings, The Edge, The Trade, Trading0 Comments

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