Running shoe and apparel giant Nike, Inc. (NKE) reported better than expected earnings Wednesday after the bell, vaulting shares higher during after-hours trading.  The Beaverton, Oregon based company broke through to all-time highs this past Monday, and this earnings beat should solidify their position at those lofty levels.  Nike beat on EPS and revenue, as the company reported $1.10/share on $4.96 billion in revenue vs. consensus estimates of $0.89/share on $4.59 billion.

The sizable beat could be an indication that recent positive retail sales data is the real deal, at least to an extent, as sales numbers came in better-than-expected all around the world.  North American revenue increased 1% on a 6% increase in apparel sales and Western European revenue increased 4% on an 8% increase in footwear sales.  Revenues out of emerging markets & China increased double-digits.  Moreover, gross margins expanded to 46.9% from 43.9%, primarily due to a roll-back in discounts and variations in the product mix.  Inventories were down 13%.

Nonetheless, it wasn’t all good, as sales dropped 7% in Japan and 8% in Central and Eastern Europe.  Furthermore, Nike’s robust results came on the heels off worse-then-expected results from two of its main rivals, Adidas and Puma.  The latter may be a positive or a negative for Nike, depending on the perspective you choose to take.  On the one hand, Nike may be prospering at the expense of its rivals, but one the other hand, Adidas’ and Puma’s weakness may be indicative of a retail climate that still has a ways to go.

Overall, things are looking good for Nike.  Whenever a company of its size hits an all-time high, it’s a meaningful event.  After all, it takes a lot of money to push a stock like Nike up as far as it has gone over the past month, indicating significant institutional sponsorship.  By the time the market opens Thursday, the stock may be almost 5% above its previous all-time highs, so you may want to exercise some caution before jumping right in.  However, if you believe the market is going to continue its uptrend over the short- to intermediate-term, it’s definitely feasible to think these shares can touch $80.

Disclosure: No holdings in NKE.

After delaying its last earnings announcement, previously scheduled for February 25th, Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) finally reported  Q4 earnings Monday after the bell.  The leading provider of Internet-based healthcare services announced in-line EPS results of $0.17/share and a slight revenue of miss of $54.4 million vs. $55 million consensus estimates.  Shares are trading up during the after-hours session following the news.

ATHN originally delayed its earnings release because the company decided to revise its accounting practices for deferred implementation revenue.  The changes resulted in a recognition of applicable revenues over their 12-year expected life, rather than over the typical one-year initial contract recognition term.  As a result, ATHN restated its results from 2005-2009.

After the accounting realignment, Q4 profits were down 84% year-over-year, but investors seemed to be focusing on the silver linings of the report, pushing shares higher.  Among said linings were total subscriber numbers, as the number of active medical providers using the athenaCollect and athenaClinical services increased 24% and 84% year-over-year, respectively.  Also, collections posted to client accounts increased to $1.4 billion from $1.1 billion for the same quarter last year.  Total client days in accounts receivable fell from 44 to 38.5.

This led CEO (and 1st cousin of George W. Bush) Jonathan Bush to exclaim that he was “very proud of [ATHN's] accomplishments in 2009, a year in which we…strengthened our unique value proposition with a patent issued on our payer rules engine, and stepped up our investments in growth by acquiring Anodyne Health Partners.”  He added that, “as physicians face increasing complexity associated with payment reform and incentive programs, I continue to believe that our unique approach as a software-enabled-service will deliver superior results to both physicians and investors.”

Overall, ATHN’s Q4 results definitely came as good news to shareholders.  After announcing the earnings delay, several law firms began investigating bases for lawsuits and shares gapped down, as you can clearly see below.  Since then, shares traded as low as $35.13 before rallying up to $39.50 and then nearly testing those lows again Monday leading into the report.  Shares closed out the after-hours session at $39.45, up 5.79%, and seem set to challenge their post-delay highs.  If they can break through, there is not much standing in their way up to $43.  If you’re looking for something longer-term, ATHN is definitely worth a look at these levels, as the selloff following the earnings delay is not something that will affect ATHN’s long-term value.  The healthcare industry seems to have bought into digitalization of records, and ATHN is likely to see continued long-term growth as a result.

Disclosure: No holdings in ATHN.

Shares of Men’s Warehouse (MW) are selling off after -hours as the retailer of discount formalwear reported lighter-than-expected revenues Wednesday after the bell.  The Houston, TX based company reported an EPS loss of $0.11 for the quarter, nearly doubling it’s loss from the same period last year, but nevertheless beating Street estimates of losses of $0.16/share.  Revenue fell 4% year-over-year, coming in light at $457.2 million vs. consensus estimates of $465.9 million, pressuring shares, and gross margins before occupancy costs were down 105 bps.

On a more positive note, guidance was strong, coming in at $0.12-$0.16/share vs. estimates of $0.09.  Furthermore, same store sales of MW’s namesake brand fell just 7.1% year-over-year, improving from a drop of 9.1% for the same quarter last year.  But the revenue numbers seem to be carrying the day, as investors have pushed shares down greater than 6% during after-hours trading.  Also not helping matters were net sales, which also came in light at $457.2 million, down 4% year-over year.

MW has struggled alongside many other clothing retailers throughout the economic downturn.  Along with many of it’s brethren, MW has lowered prices to keep customers only to watch margins wither away.  Though shares have certainly enjoyed a nice run since the panic-lows of just over a year ago, it’s questionable if MW still has legs.  After rallying from under $10 to over $27 during September ‘09, shares dropped back under $20 until popping back up to $25 last week on positive retail sales data.

Tonight’s report seems to be bringing shares back down to earth, as well as putting much of MW’s recent run into question.  Until today, shares looked as though they were going to push through the aforementioned September highs, possibly offering a good trading opportunity.  It is highly unlikely they will do so now.

Last week’s positive retail sales report has many retailers, like True Religion (TRLG), which we recommended here at wallstcheatsheet.com a couple of weeks ago, thriving.  In that kind of environment, there’s no reason to get behind companies that are under-performing their peers.  So, stay away from MW for the moment, unless you’re looking for a short.

Disclosure: No holdings in MW, TRLG.

Shares of defense contractor Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) are surging after-hours following a better-than-expected quarterly report.  The company, which specializes in blast- and ballistic-proof vehicles, reported quarterly profits of $0.27/share on revenue of $289 million, good for 57% and 21% year-over-year increases, respectively.  The Street had pegged FRPT at $0.22/share on revenue of $279.1 million, and the beat has shares trading up nearly 10% as of the close of after-hours trading.

FRPT is probably best known for it’s Buffalo mine-clearing vehicle, dozens of which have been sold to the Army for use in  Iraq and Afghanistan.  However, as you can see quite plainly on the chart below, shares were beaten down mercilessly after FRPT lost out on a joint-initiative with General Dynamics (GD) last Summer.  Since then, the company has embarked on an aggressive cost-cutting strategy that aims to save $40 million/year.

Apparently, the strategy is beginning to hit the bottom line, as CEO Michael Moody exclaimed that the earnings beat was, “a direct result of solid execution on our strategic initiatives throughout the organization.”  He added that the efforts, “place [FRPT] in a solid position to broaden [it's] business by capitalizing on strategic internal and external growth opportunities.”

Shares finished up after-hours trading at $6.01, up 9.67% from the day’s close.  Shares have not traded above $6 since entering what appears to be a conventional rectangular box pattern in mid-October and have not risen above $6.30 since losing 50% of it’s market cap in one week following the loss of the aforementioned contract opportunity.  FRPT’s fundamentals are still, shall we say, ‘iffy,’ though the cost cutting initiative definitely seems to be taking hold.

If you’re looking for a trade, the buy-point here is at $6.25, or $0.10 above the first down-bar of the pattern in the weekly chart below.  If it can break out above that point tomorrow, particularly on high volume, you might be able to capture a solid short-term profit.  Just be sure to keep a careful eye on volume, as light volume is a typical indicator of a false breakout, in which case you would want to stay away.

Disclosure: No holdings in FRPT, GD.

Shares of Take Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO)  popped during after-hours trading following it’s report of a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss.  The producer of smash hit video games such as “Grand Theft Auto” and “Borderlands” reported a net loss of $33.9 million, or $0.43/share, compared with a net loss of $50.4 million, or $0.66/share, for the same quarter last year.  Consensus estimates were looking for a loss of $0.51/share.

The Street has taken news of the beat kindly, pushing shares up 5%+ during after-hours trading.  Among the highlights of the quarterly report were a 9% year-over-year gain in net revenue and better-than-expected sales of “Carnival Games,” which is now the third best selling game for the Nintendo Wii that is not produced by Nintendo.  Sales of online add-ons for Borderlands outperformed as well.

In then end though, the market is a forward-looking mechanism, and as such, Wall St. really only  cares about guidance.  This is especially so in the case of companies like TTWO that have suffered several consecutive quarterly losses.  Lucky for them, CEO Ben Feder painted a rosy[er] than expected outlook for the coming Q as well as for FY 2010.  In addition to a cost-cutting initiative that is set to yield 9% year-over-year savings in 2010 and 16% thereafter, Feder announced that “BioShock 2″ has shipped over 3 million copies since it’s early-February release.  As a result, the revenue outlook for the coming quarter was given a mid-point of $275 million, beating Street expectations of $267 million.

Shares finished after-hours trading at $9.54, good for a 5.65% move in the right direction.  If it can push through resistance at $9.96, there’s a good chance it can rally up towards $11.  There’s no question that TTWO has rolled out a long line of hits, but we also still have to remember that it’s trading under $10 for a reason.  One look at that gap down in early-December is all it should take to remind you to proceed with caution on this one.  But if you’re looking for a high-Beta play on the potential for a consumer recovery, or just a quick 10% – 15% trade, TTWO is definitely worth a look.

Disclosure: No holdings in TTWO.

Movie theater operator Carmike Cinemas, Inc. (CKEC) beat earnings estimates by a significant margin Monday after bell, reporting it’s most profitable quarter in over two years.  The company, which operates over 250 movie theaters containing over 2,200 screens across 36 states reported quarterly EPS of $0.48 on revenue of $137.4 million.  Street consensus had CKEC’s numbers pegged at $0.09/share on revenue of $126.2 million.  That’s a greater than 5X beat on EPS, and as you might imagine, shares are trading up big after-hours.  This is only the second time in two and a half years that CKEC reported a quarterly profit.

Unquestionably, CKEC benefited greatly from a record-setting quarter out of Hollywood that included 9 movies grossing over $100 million.  CKEC saw a 12% increase in total attendance year over year even though admission were raised 7.1%.  The company was also able to cut expenses by 16%.  However, concessions spending contracted marginally, down .9% in terms of spending per customer.  CEO David Passman was optimistic for FY 2010 “given an upcoming slate that includes many promising 3-D titles as well as highly anticipated traditional movies.”  CKEC has equipped 22% of it’s screens for 3D movies thus far.

Many in the industry, as well as on the Street, believe that the strength we are seeing out of Hollywood is due not only to mega-hits like Avatar, but our sluggish economy as well.  For many families and young adults across America, going to the movies may be a trade down from other more expensive activities.  If that is in fact the case, then barring a swifter-than-expected recovery, this trend is likely to continue.

Still, even if the trend does continue, don’t jump into CKEC unless you’ve got a strong stomach.  As you can see, Carmike is no stranger to sweeping moves in both directions, so any money you throw behind the shares should come from a more speculative part of your portfolio.  Shares gained 4.4% during regular trading and another 7.37% during the after-hours session, finishing up at $10.20.

Shares closed for the day near a potential inflection point, right at levels where they had gapped down from after the company’s last earnings report.  Now CKEC is set to open well above that point, and about 10% below it’s 52-week high of $11.54.  Since shares have already run up a fair amount, the safe bet for a trade would probably be to wait and see if shares can demonstrate some consistent strength and push through those highs.  Carmike can definitely be a good high-beta play on out-performance in the film industry, but this stock is not worth a large position in your portfolio by any means.  For a more stable, diversified play on Hollywood I would recommend Viacom (VIA-B) or Disney (DIS).

Disclosure: No holdings in CKEC, VIA-B, DIS.

True Religion Apparel Inc. (TRLG) beat Q4 earnings estimates Wednesday after the bell, boasting profits of $0.59/share, $0.03 ahead of consensus estimates.  Revenues rose 27.1% year-over-year to $92.8 million, the most the designer, retailer and distributor of high-end jeans has ever seen in a single Q, and well ahead of the Street’s $84.5 million estimates.  Additionally, management announced that they intend to open 28 new stores in 2010.  Considering that TRLG’s jeans typically sell in the $200-$300 range, it is apparent that not all consumers feel the pain of the “Great Recession” equally.

On a more solemn note, management’s FY 2010 projections came in a tad shy of estimates.  EPS forecasts now stand at $2.00-$2.10 vs. consensus estimates of $2.12.  Revenue forecasts, however, came in at $360 million, good enough for a slight beat of the $347.66 million Street consensus.  These revenue estimates assume 40%-45% growth in direct sales in 2010, which assume the company is able to successfully open all 28 of the aforementioned new stores planned for the year.  Wholesale revenues are expected to decline in 2010 largely due to management’s decision to slow down sales into the off-price channel and place a greater emphasis on selling to regular-price destinations.  Hey, if they beat estimates selling $300 jeans in this economy, maybe they know what they’re doing.

TRLG closed the day up 3.28% and added another 3.71% following the report, finishing up after-hours trading at $21.55.  The stock has been held under $22 since gapping down in early-November and it’s 200-day moving average crossed through it’s 50-day just before the new year, never a good sign.  If you’re looking for an investment I would wait to see if they can come through on some of their revenue assumptions, especially new store openings.  Last Q was a bit of a disaster so you’ll want a bit more proof that TRLG is on the right track before you commit to a long-term holding.  But for a trade, I would say that you can buy on a breakout above $22.16, especially on volume, looking for a 10% to 20% move.  Just remember to keep a tight stop (8% max).

Disclosure: No holdings in TRLG.

Shares of Buenos Aires-based MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) sold off hard during after-hours trading following a narrow earnings miss.  The “Latin American eBay,” as some refer to it, reported EPS of $0.26 on revenue of $49 million, coming in shy of estimates on both accounts.  Street consensus called for EPS of $0.27 on revenue of $59 million.  Shares, which finished regular trading down 2%, are down an additional 10% after-hours.

Perhaps the greatest motivator behind the earning shortfall was a negative currency impact due to Hugo Chavez’s decision to devalue the Bolivar on Jan. 9th.  MELI, which does significant business in Venezuela, decided to translate financial results from its Venezuelan operations at the “parallel” exchange rate of 5.67 bolivars instead of the official rate which was 2.15, and is now 4.3. Excluding the impact of these changes, revenue for the Q would have come in at $56.0 million.  This would have been much closer to consensus estimates, not to mention a 67.5% year-over-year gain.

Including the currency impact, revenue increased 46.5% year-over-year, profits 44%.  Specifically, MELI’s Marketplace segment (it’s actual e-commerce operation) grew 31.1% and it’s Payments segment (MercadoPago – the equivalent of PayPal) grew 100.9%.

On the chart below, the circle denotes the announcement of the Bolivar devaluation.  As you can see, shares sold off for about a month before finally stabilizing and then staging a bit of a rally.  At the close of after-hours trading, shares were changing hands at $36.83, right around the line on the chart.  This is also where shares bottomed out earlier this month, as well as the locale of the 200-day moving average.

Long-term, the thesis behind MELI remains intact.  The company is still showing significant growth and is less than 1/15 the size of eBay, it’s American counterpart and largest shareholder.  But, while MELI’s potential is undeniable, the stock is likely to continue to experience these kinds of volatile moves.  I would recommend waiting to see if shares can hold their 200-day MA over the next few days.  If they can, I would consider this a good opportunity to start a position for the long-term, as well as potentially for a trade back into the $40 – $44 range.

Disclosure: No holdings in MELI.

Serial destroyer of earnings estimates Priceline.com (PCLN) has done it yet again.  The online travel company reported EPS of $1.99 excluding items such as stock-based compensation on revenue of $541.8 million.  These results handily beat estimates of $1.68 and $529.8 million, and were good for 54% and 33% year-over-year gains.  Guidance was strong as well, as management forecasted Q1 2010 EPS of $1.54 – $1.64, well above Street estimates of $1.41.  Priceline has now beaten analyst estimates by at least $0.18/share for six consecutive quarters.

Gross bookings grew 81% YOY internationally and 21% in the U.S., and total hotel nights grew 60% overall.  The report prompted one industry analyst to remark that, “everything in the online travel industry is looking up,” but Priceline’s CEO Jeffrey Boyd tried to cool things off a bit.  He noted that the growth in gross bookings was due not only to the strong underlying fundamentals of the industry, but also to “weak results in the prior year period amidst the global recession and improving currency and ADR comparisons.”  As a result, he warned that investors should not expect such extremely outsized gains going forward, though just regular outsized gains will likely do the trick.

PCLN has a real habit of gapping up on earnings and it’s hard not to admire the way the stock can move on good news.  Leading into the report shares had been forming a nice cup-with-handle base dating back to about December 29th, but shares gapped right past the potential $230.59 buy-point in fast trade.  It’s hard to get behind a stock that is up so much over the past year, but it is worth noting that shares had been trading around the 200-range since early-Novemeber, indicating a level of comfort for the shares at those levels.

As far as a trade is concerned, gapping up out of any pattern on high volume is very bullish, but the fact that shares were not actually allowed to form a proper cup-with-handle may be cause for worry.  Considering the news out of the Fed has Dow futures down about 100 points after-hours, I’d recommend waiting to see if PCLN can perhaps form a handle on it’s incomplete cup and then buying on a breakout from there.

Disclosure: No holdings in PCLN.

Shares of Ingersoll Rand (IR) fell hard Friday after the company missed earnings estimates when it reported Q4 numbers before the bell.  The diversified manufacturer of capital goods came in with profits of $139 million, or $0.42/share, which actually looks fairly positive when compared to a loss of $3.29 billion, or $10.27/share, for the same quarter last year.  That monster loss, however, was due to a significant write-down related to IR’s acquisition of Trane, a heating and air conditioning company.  Minus the write-down, IR earned $0.48/share for the same period last year.  The Street had been looking for $0.52/share.

Beyond the shortfall for the quarter, Ingersoll also disappointed on it’s forecast, for the near-term at least.  Management expects Q1 2010 earnings of between $0.15 – $0.20/share, which came in well below expectations of $0.38/share.  Q1 revenue forecasts came in roughly in-line with expectations.  For the full 2010 FY, management actually upped forecasts by $0.20 to between $2.20 – $2.60/share, the mid-range of which is above current Street estimates of $2.30/share.

What does all of this add up to?  An 8% single-day loss, that’s what.  Shares, which had rallied up to about $34 on Thursday, opened at just above $30, good for a greater than 10% decline.  But shares were able to put together a bit of a rally throughout the day, finally closing at $31.26.  It wasn’t all bad, though, as S&P upgraded IR to Buy from Neutral by mid-day, citing expected improvements in the residential and service-related sectors of IR’s business.  They maintain a $40 target.

In the end, the performance of a company like Ingersoll Rand is going to be closely tied to that of the economy.  If you believe that we will be trading significantly higher on the S&P at the end of the year, then this is a good opportunity to get behind a diversified industrial like IR on weakness.  But if you’re in the double-dip camp, then you’ll want to look for somewhere else to park your money.

If you’re looking for a trade, IR had been forming a rectangular base for about three months leading into the general market weakness of the last few weeks, at which point shares broke out downward.  After gapping further down off the earnings miss, shares were able to hold their 200-day moving average.  If you think we are in for more near-term weakness, you could considering shorting the shares, though IR may not be the greatest candidate for a short after taking the beat down it did on Friday.  If you’re looking to go long for an intermediate-term play, I would wait for a break of the 50-day MA, preferably on volume.

Disclosure: No holdings in IR.