Author Archives | Carolyn Austin

JoyGlobal (JOYG): Do Improving Fundamentals Indicate a Buy?

JoyGlobal (JOYG): Do Improving Fundamentals Indicate a Buy?

Growth in the manufacturing sector and a positive third-quarter earnings report helped capital-goods maker Joy Global pop above its 13- and 50-day moving averages today.  The Institute of Supply Management reported the 13th  straight month of expansion in the manufacturing sector – good news for equipment makers.

JOYG beat analyst expectations by a healthy $0.10 for $1.13 EPS and raised its 2010 outlook for fiscal 2010 to between $4.10 and $4.15 from between $3.85 and $4.00.

Earnings for the year-ago quarter came in at $1.21 per share. The $5.8B mining-machinery maker also reported 11 percent lower revenues from a year ago. The company touted its sales in surface mining equipment and aftermarket replacement sales and to non-US markets, although net sales decreased overall.

Mike Sutherlin, President and Chief Executive Officer, said “Operating profitability continues above 20 percent, despite lower volumes, as we benefit from our efforts on cost control and process improvements. The market fundamentals continue to improve as customers announce new mine expansions and increase their capital budgets. As a result of these factors, this quarter positions us well to finish the year strongly and to capitalize on opportunities for 2011.”

In its outlook, JoyGlobal stated that companies are growing into unused capacity and may need to add capacity in the near future. From the report:

“It is now expected that capital spending this year will be up around 30 percent from 2009, and will be up by approximately another 10 percent in 2011.”

JOY Global Inc (NASDAQ: JOYG)


Comments: Although the momentum in industrial production is expected to moderate in the second half of 2010, production is still expected to run higher than last year.  It’s worth noting, however, that $15 million in lower taxes for JOYG this quarter contributed about $0.15 to EPS. Without this decrease, the company would have reported earnings below estimates. On the balance sheet, the company also has increased its payables by about 50M over last year and holds almost 60M in higher inventories.

On a brighter note, the company is performing well and claims its active prospect list has expanded 20 percent since the beginning of the year. If you share the company’s optimism that these prospects will translate into higher sales, the market fundamentals will continue to improve, and company expansions are on the calendar, then you may want to take a closer look at JOYG. The technicals show the MACD bottoming out and the stock coming off oversold. The stock hit a high of $65.93 in April and the momentum is to the upside.

Disclosure: No positions

Posted in The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Brocade (BRCD): Cheap and Easy?

Brocade (BRCD): Cheap and Easy?

Yes, this is truly a time of “unusual uncertainty” as the usually cool-as-a-cucumber Cisco CEO John Chambers stated in early August and caused ripples in the world of technology.

Data storage maker Brocade, which makes SAN equipment, Ethernet switches, IP routers, and other networking for business and government (like Cisco), was not immune. The stock continued to decline after a brief rally. Currently, BRCD is selling near its 52-week low of $4.64.

In its latest earnings statement, Brocade met expectations of $0.13 (non-GAAP) per share on a 2.2 percent increase in revenue over the prior year. The company reported GAAP earnings of $0.05 for the quarter. Here are the important metrics from the company website.

Mike Klayko, CEO, summarized performance for the quarter this way:

“In terms of business segments, we performed better-than-expected in storage area networking (SAN) with switch revenue growing double digits sequentially in what is typically a seasonally challenging quarter. Our overall Ethernet business was slightly down sequentially primarily due to softness in Japan and our Federal business, which was down 16% from a strong performance in Q2, while up 15% year-over-year.”

BROCADE COMM SYS (NASDAQ: BRCD)

Comments: A 2 percent increase in revenue is not all that much to celebrate, but the company has been experiencing some growing pains since its acquisition of Foundry Networks over a year ago. The balance sheet looks much better this year. On the other hand, gross margin and operating margin continue to decline and the company expects pricing pressures to continue. Still, speculation about BRCD as an easy takeover target could be fueling the recent uptick in stock price. Volume, however, is weak. The company is currently selling at about book value and looks cheap.  BRCD’s strategy to capitalize on virtualization (the virtual data center) could be a hot ticket for the company providing they continue to develop new markets and distribution channels — takeover target or not.

Disclosure: No positions

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Coach (COH) Class: Why the High-End Retailer Will Fly Lower

Coach (COH) Class: Why the High-End Retailer Will Fly Lower

Coach (COH), the maker of quality leather goods and accessories, had a good year. The company recently reported solid earnings for 2010 and outlined its strategy for 2011.

Here are the highlights from the company’s recent fourth-quarter earnings report:

-Sales up 22 percent to $951 million over the year-ago quarter

-Net income up 34 percent to $196 million

-Earnings up 40 percent to $0.64 per share over the year-ago quarter

- For the fiscal year, sales up 12 percent to $3.61 billion; net income up 18 percent to $735 million; earnings per share rose 22 percent to $2.33

The company reported modest growth in the US, flat growth in Japan, and robust sales in China. The plans to expand on developing markets in China and overseas and diversifying with its Men’s store openings.

“As we enter FY11, we remain confident in our growth prospects and ability to drive sales and earnings at a double-digit pace, given the current strength of the Coach business and our increasing global expansion,” Lew Frankfort, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Coach, Inc., said.

The chart tells a different story:

Comments: Coach has impressive fundamentals, including a gross margin of 73 percent, but this is lower than its historical average.  Insiders and institutions have been selling shares consistently since Spring. The company’s $0.15 quarterly dividend for a yield of 1.6 percent isn’t quite juicy enough given the current retail environment, and is likely to be even more challenging for high-end goods. The company has a good growth strategy, but even the best growth strategy will flounder if consumers aren’t buying. Despite recent consolidation, this stock has further to slide.

Disclosure: No positions.

Posted in Earnings, The Trade0 Comments

BHP Billiton (BHP) Pins Performance to Emerging Economies

BHP Billiton (BHP) Pins Performance to Emerging Economies

Australian metals company BHP Billiton reported strong earning results today but tempered its outlook with measured optimism toward worldwide economic demand and growth.

The world’s biggest mining company expects softening output from industrialized companies in the months ahead and is looking to emerging economies for maintaining demand in the near term.

In its earnings release for fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, BHP reported a 5.2 percent increase in revenue and a 116 percent in profit over fiscal year 2009. Excluding exceptional items, the company grew EBITDA earnings 10 percent and profit 16 percent.

The biggest impact to the earnings results were a positive boost from strong volumes in steel-making raw materials, price increases for iron ore plus base and precious metals, and a negative exchange rate impact from a weaker US dollar.

The company boosted its dividend by $0.04 to $0.45 per share for the current quarter for an annual dividend of $0.87, yielding about 1.3 percent. Last year the company paid a annual dividend of $0.81.

The company noted its concerns in the earnings release:

BHP Billiton remains cautious on the short term outlook for the global economy… property sales volumes and prices have started to decline in Tier 1 cities over the last quarter… Uncertainty continues to surround the developed world as governments adjust fiscal policies following a period of significant stimulus and subsequent increase in sovereign debt levels… Industrial output, a core measure of economic activity, remains well below previous peaks despite the positive impact attributable to re-stocking that now appears largely complete… ongoing de-leveraging and weak confidence are hampering efforts to revive demand.

The stock sold off on the news.

BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP)


Comments: As a supplier of basic raw materials as well as diamonds, precious metals, and oil, BHP could function as a bellwether for the global economy, reflecting future industrial output downstream. BHP clearly expects sales to weaken in the coming months and with demand slowing, the company is not likely to increase prices. Emerging economies may help in the interim, but until the global economy grows, the company is likely to report lower future earnings. It’s also worth noting that depreciation and amortization (non-cash items) added almost 2 percent to the reported 10 percent in earnings for the year. The company has a well-reasoned expectation for good performance over the long term. For now, the chart has yet to establish a bottom, and although oversold, the momentum is clearly to the downside.

Disclosure: No positions

Posted in Earnings, The Trade0 Comments

Staples (SPLS) Sells Off on Downward Guidance

Staples (SPLS) Sells Off on Downward Guidance

Despite flat sales compared to a year ago, Staples increased earning this quarter by 38 percent. Staples reported second-quarter earnings of $0.18 per share, a $0.05 increase from $0.13 per share in the year-ago period. Total company sales equaled 5 billion.

After restructuring charges and other non-recurring costs, the office products company expects to earn between $1.20 and $1.24 per share for fiscal year 2010.  The company reduced its forecast by $0.06 due to a revised tax rate higher than forecast.

The stock sold off on the news.

Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS)

Comments: Like many companies in the retail sector, SPLS is holding higher inventories but for SPLS, customers are spending less — a double whammy. Its forecast for fiscal year 2010 assumes a “modest economic recovery” for the second half of 2010. While this optimism is welcome, forecasts for a modest recovery towards the end of 2010 are growing less optimistic. It looks like SPLS may have more bad news ahead.

Disclosure: No positions

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Applied Materials (AMAT) Gives Lukewarm Earnings Report

Applied Materials (AMAT) Gives Lukewarm Earnings Report

Net sales at Semiconductor giant Applied Materials (AMAT) were up 123 percent over last year’s sales figures, but earnings took a hit from restructuring and other charges in the Energy and Environmental Solutions (EES) segment.

Third-quarter EPS (GAAP) came in at $0.09 after the EES charges. The company predicted it would earn between and $0.10 and $0.14 per share after the EES write-offs. Excluding the EES charges, the company reported earnings of $0.29 per share (non-GAAP).

AMAT anticipated net sales for the fourth quarter to be flat or slightly upwards of 5 percent.

Investors shrugged off the earnings news after the bell and the needle barely moved on the stock after hours.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT)

Comments: Except for the “chips” segment, third-quarter net sales came in weaker than last quarter, but still a substantial improvement over year-ago results. On the plus side, the company has overcome the red ink from last year with positive earnings for 2010.  The bottom line: sales need to show a stronger growth pattern here to boost the share price.

Disclosure: No positions

Don’t Miss: Suntech Power Shares Light Up After Reporting Earnings >

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Home Depot (HD) Earnings: Short of a Home Run, but a Solid Hit

Home Depot (HD) Earnings: Short of a Home Run, but a Solid Hit

Some good news in the retail sector today as Home Depot beat earnings estimates by a penny and updated guidance. The company reported $0.72 per diluted share but was a bit short on revenue, which rose a lower-than-expected 1.7 percent over last year’s second quarter. Undaunted, the company raised fiscal guidance to about a 2.6 percent increase in sales for the year and a 22 percent increase in earnings to $1.90.

“We delivered solid results as we continue to build momentum with our merchandising transformation, supply chain enhancements and customer service initiatives,” said Frank Blake, chairman & CEO.

The company reported $0.66 per share for second quarter 2009.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD)

Comments: A reduction in depreciation/amortization expense substantially contributed to HD’s operating income in its 2010 statements. (Depreciation/amortization is a non-cash expense and can be adjusted as needed.) Still gross margins improved as did earnings, just not as much as the EPS figure implies if you remove the depreciation factor from the financial statements.  A 3.5 percent increase in average weekly sales totals shows that sales are improving despite discounting and higher cost of sales. Merchandise inventories increased this quarter, and it looks like the company is betting on seasonal sales to carry it through the end of the year.

Don’t Miss: Will Lowe’s (LOW) Earnings Bring Analyst Expectations Back to Reality? >

Disclosure: No positions

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Can Trendy Retailer Urban Outfitters (URBN) Trend Higher?

Can Trendy Retailer Urban Outfitters (URBN) Trend Higher?

Urban Outfitters reported strong earnings today following some recent bad news for the retail sector. The trendy retailer beat consensus estimates for the fifth consecutive quarter, topping expectations of $0.39 per share for a second-quarter earnings per share of $0.42. The company reported $0.29 per share for the year-ago quarter.

URBN also reported a 20 percent increase in revenue over the prior-year quarter, with revenues coming in at $552M vs. expectations of $542M, earning $0.29 per share.

“We are delighted to announce record second quarter sales and earnings, with every brand, channel, region and shared service group delivering exceptional results,” said Glen T. Senk, Chief Executive Officer. “Given the context of an uncertain economic environment, the Company continues to focus on superior creative execution combined with disciplined inventory and expense management,” finished Mr. Senk.

URBN operates such well-known retail shops as Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People. For fiscal year ending January 2010, the company reported sales growth of 5.6 percent on $1,937.8M sales and income growth of 10.3 percent.

Last quarter the company reported a 25% increase in revenue to $480 M and a jump of 72% in net income to $53M for $0.31 earnings per share.

Despite these stellar earnings, the stock is struggling to stay afloat amid sinking expectations for retail. Just last week, the US Commerce Dept reported weaker-than-expected consumer spending for the month of July, and JC Penney and Kohl’s lowered outlooks in their earnings reports.

Shares edged higher before the earnings release on average volume.

Urban Outfitters Inc (NASDAQ:URBN)

Comments: For a company ranked third most financially healthy retailer in the US (by Consensus Advisers), this chart is something of a head-scratcher. The company has no long-term debt and has a current ratio (current assets to current liabilities) of over 4.5x. Despite the fact that the yearly mean target estimate is $43.40 and merited three recommends from analysts, the stock has been sinking like the Hindenburg from its April high of $40.84. In fact, the stock is off over 22 percent from its high and trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. It’s hard to see why URBN looks like the ugly stepchild of retail.

Recent insider selling may have spooked investors or investors may be abandoning retail stocks following last week’s bad news. But even Macy’s got a boost following their earnings report, and they don’t have the financials this company has. URBN held at the $30 support level today and was up over 1 percent for the day. This stock deserves a closer look (and more respect).  The stock is hitting oversold territory, so we may see the seeds of a turnaround starting to form.

Disclosure: No positions.

Posted in The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Is Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) a Sure Thing?

Is Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) a Sure Thing?

Nothing like an Irish Car Bomb to start off the weekend (the cocktail that is) but sometimes I just go with a Jameson and Baileys. Order that on the rocks, and you may find a $1 charge for ice cubes on your tab. I did (and I won’t be back). But with elections coming up, I’m sure to be making the rounds…somewhere

The point is — there’s money in alcohol. Alcoholic beverages is one category beating the S&P this quarter, by almost 11 percent.

The largest brewer in the world, InBev Anheuser-Busch (InBev of Belgium acquired Anheuser-Busch in 2008), released earnings for 2Q2010 before market open today and the stock popped up on the news. Company sponsorship of the 2010 FIFA World Cup highlighted the quarter.

Here’s a quick summary:

- normalized earnings per share of 0.90 USD in 2Q10 compared  to 0.72 USD  in 2Q09, and 1.46 USD in HY10 compare to 1.21 USD in HY09 – beating consensus estimates of $0.8

- revenues rose 4.1 percent for the quarter or 2.8 percent on a constant geographic basis

- total volumes were up 2.1 percent, following 5.7 percent Focus Brand growth (led by Budweiser internationally, Antarctica, Brahma and Skol in Brazil and Harbin in China

- EBITDA increased 5.6 percent

- launched Bud in Russia in May 2010

- Bud Light becomes the official sponsor of the NFL in 2011

- cost of sales increased about 1 percent overall and margins showed slight decreases, but organic growth improved 50 bp in the quarter worldwide. Still, organic growth (growth from increased sales, not mergers/acquisitions) fell in North America and Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the Export/Holding Company category

Addressing the decline in growth in these segments, the company made this statement:

“Notwithstanding  our  international  successes  with  Budweiser,  we  are  not  pleased  with  our overall market share performance, having gained or maintained share in markets representing almost half of our volumes. We are putting in place brand building and commercial programs to improve our performance in the second half of 2010 and into 2011. Importantly, our brand health indicators remain strong across all  Zones. Several  factors  contributed  to  the  share losses,  including  social  actions  in  Belgium,  tough  comparisons  in  the  United  States  and promotional activities by some competitors, especially in Germany.”

Anheuser Busch ADR (NYSE: BUD)

Comments: Cost-cutting measures at InBev Anheuser-Busch have resulted in stellar margins across the board. The company has met its goal of 30 percent EBITDA for the quarter. But with economies of scale largely completed and organic growth slowing in some markets, costs to increase market share and penetration in declining markets may rise. Growth elsewhere is likely to keep profits high. Plus, as one of life’s little luxuries (no cube surcharge required), the beer market is inherently stable. BUD looks like a high flyer for the near term and beyond. And in this economic environment, you might say BUD is a sure thing.

Disclosure: No positions.

Posted in The Trade, Trading0 Comments

Macy’s (M) Performance Improves Outlook but Debt Overshadows

Macy’s (M) Performance Improves Outlook but Debt Overshadows

Last time we checked in with Macy’s, the company beat estimates with higher sales across all channels and other operating and structural improvements. The negative in the first-quarter picture: Macy’s was shouldering high debt. Our overall assessment was that Macy’s management team was on the right track but the picture needed more clarity.

Macy’s proved itself again in today’s second-quarter earnings report. M topped expectations of $0.29 per share, reporting diluted eps of $0.35 on over a 7-percent increase sales (year-over-year). Same-store sales rose 5.2 percent over second-quarter 2009, helped out by jumps in online sales at macys.com and bloomingdales.com.

A year ago, Macy’s reported $0.20 eps (excluding non-recurring charges) for the second quarter. Operating margins improved to 5.2 percent of sale for the first half of 2010 from 3 percent (excluding nonrecurring costs) of sales for the first half of 2009. The company had sales of $23.5 billion for fiscal year 2009.

“The improvement in our business is not the result of a single factor. Rather, our performance reflects a number of strategic initiatives that are working successfully and complementing each other,” said Terry J. Lundgren, Macy’s, Inc. chairman, president and chief executive officer.

“This includes My Macy’s localization of merchandise assortments, centralization of key Macy’s organizational functions, customer centricity activity, continued development of private brands, introduction of new exclusive market brands, improvement in associate selling and service skills, and integration of stores and online channels at Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s,” he added. “We are entering the fall season with tremendous momentum that has energized the exceptionally talented people in our company. We are motivated to continue to innovate, test new ideas, accelerate the penetration of distinctive and exclusive merchandise, and tailor our offering to the diverse customers who shop in our stores and online.”

Macy’s (NYSE: M)

Comments: Macy’s profited from stronger sales this quarter, but also by improved operating margins. The company’s management strategy has paid off as M increased guidance over the prior quarter from $1.75-$1.80 to $185-$1.90. Still debt heavy, M restructured debt and substantially improved their cash position. Refinancing long-term debt with cheaper, short-debt makes good sense as the company plans to open four new stores in second half 2010. Still the debt burden is onerous (total debt equals $8.19 on a market cap of $8.56B) and the recent sales trends could fade going forward, which makes M a risky play.

Disclosure: No positions.

Posted in The Trade, Trading0 Comments

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